Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers
TWFG, Inc. Common Stock TWFG
$24.61 -0.57% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $319.9M
High qualityInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 11, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The diluted share count fell 13.1% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $0.37, down 52.2% year over year.
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $284.6M, up 37.3% from a year earlier, accelerating from 27.0% a quarter earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 10%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 13%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 33%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 43%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 10%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 8%
- Gross marginBottom 9%
- Operating marginBottom 38%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 5%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 7%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 19%
- Interest coverTop 2%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 20%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 20%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 4%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 9%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 45%
- 6-month returnTop 7%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 25%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 22%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 48%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 6%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 16%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 30%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 50%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 13%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 15%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 33%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 19%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 27.0% | 37.3% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -16.2% | -52.2% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 23.1% | 27.3% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 12.4% | 16.3% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 21.6% | 15.8% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 37.3% | 27.0% | ↑ | Top 10% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -52.2% | -16.2% | ↓ | Bottom 13% |
| Gross margin | 27.3% | 23.1% | ↑ | Bottom 9% |
| Operating margin | 16.3% | 12.4% | ↑ | Bottom 38% |
| Net margin | 3.1% | 2.9% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 15.8% | 21.6% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 14.7% | — | Top 8% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 16.5% | — | Top 43% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -14.5%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.4%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +39.2 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- -0.78×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 182.4×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 6.62%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 13.40%
- Shareholder yield
- 20.02%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -13.1%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -72.5%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 7
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 7 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +45.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.4%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $28.40
- Target vs current price
- +15.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 8
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 63%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | +47.9% | +1.6% | +0.3% | +5.2% | — |
| May 7, 2026 | +45.0% | +2.3% | -0.1% | +0.2% | +44.7% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | +66.7% | +5.2% | +17.6% | +7.2% | +7.6% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | +21.1% | +2.0% | +9.4% | +6.7% | -8.0% |
| Aug 12, 2025 | +11.1% | -1.4% | +2.7% | -8.3% | -10.1% |
| May 13, 2025 | +6.7% | -1.0% | +3.4% | +7.5% | -17.1% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | +90.0% | +4.4% | -2.4% | +9.1% | +16.7% |
| Nov 12, 2024 | -11.8% | -1.9% | -4.8% | -6.6% | -9.1% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.38 | $0.26 | +47.9% | $87.5M |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.29 | $0.20 | +45.0% | $72.8M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $0.30 | $0.18 | +66.7% | $68.8M |
| Nov 12, 2025 | $0.23 | $0.19 | +21.1% | $61.7M |
| Aug 12, 2025 | $0.20 | $0.18 | +11.1% | $57.9M |
| May 13, 2025 | $0.16 | $0.15 | +6.7% | $53.8M |
| Mar 19, 2025 | $0.19 | $0.10 | +90.0% | $46.5M |
| Nov 12, 2024 | $0.15 | $0.17 | -11.8% | $51.1M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 66.8× | — | — | Bottom 20% |
| P/E (forward) | 21.1× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 3.0× | — | — | Top 4% |
| EV / Sales | 0.89× | — | — | Top 9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.07% | — | — | Top 20% |
| Earnings yield | 1.50% | — | — | Bottom 20% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 27.3× – 77.5× since Dec 31, 2024. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -7.2%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -52.2%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +110.5%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 69
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.7%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.9%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -9.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +5.5%
- RSI (14)
- 39.8
- Relative volume
- 0.48×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 44.1%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 61th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.49
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.17
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -21.0%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -52.7%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2025 | Feb 24, 2026 | -52.7% | 169 days | Not yet recovered |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Jan 8, 2025 | -23.8% | 30 days | 106 days (Jun 12, 2025) |
| Sep 5, 2024 | Sep 16, 2024 | -13.8% | 7 days | 25 days (Oct 21, 2024) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $319.9M
- P/E (TTM)
- 66.8
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.37
- Revenue (TTM)
- $284.6M
- 52-week range
- $16.56 – $31.30
| FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $147.8M | $167.0M | $193.7M | $234.0M |
| Gross profit | $30.6M | $36.2M | $46.6M | $62.8M |
| Operating income | $23.7M | $25.4M | $27.9M | $23.9M |
| Net income | $0 | $0 | $2.7M | $8.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.03 | $0.31 | $0.18 | $0.51 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $51.1M | $46.5M | $51.8M | $57.9M | $61.7M | $62.5M | $72.8M | $87.5M |
| Net income | $1.2M | $1.6M | $1.3M | $2.0M | $1.7M | $2.9M | $1.8M | $2.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.08 | $0.11 | $0.09 | $0.49 | $0.11 | $0.05 | $0.03 | $0.18 |
| FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $25.8M | $30.2M | $40.5M | $53.5M |
| Capital expenditure | -$12.3M | -$15.6M | -$3.2M | -$356,000 |
| Free cash flow | $13.5M | $14.5M | $37.3M | $53.1M |
| Dividends paid | -$20.6M | -$33.4M | -$9.3M | -$15.9M |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | $0 | $193.6M | -$445,000 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $73.7M
- Total assets
- $358.4M
- Total liabilities
- $71.3M
- Total debt
- $7.6M
- Net debt
- -$66.1M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $46.2M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 732,074
- Days to cover
- 4.29
- Change vs previous report
- +20.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.