Stocks · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
United Fire Group, Inc. UFCS
$54.62 +1.26% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $1.40B
High qualityStrong trendInexpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $5.38, up 53.3% year over year.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 8 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +76.2%).
- Over the past year the stock returned +81.9%, ahead of the S&P 500 by 66.8 percentage points.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
Growth56Neutral
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 36%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 20%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 27%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 36%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 40%
Quality84Strong
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 8%
- Gross marginBottom 27%
- Operating marginBottom 26%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 20%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 20%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 30%
- Interest coverTop 11%
Value93Exceptional
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 17%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 15%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 8%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 10%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 49%
Momentum100Exceptional
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 2%
- 6-month returnTop 4%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 1%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 18%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 11%
Revisions90Exceptional
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 4%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 13%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 24%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 32%
Stability53Neutral
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 35%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 40%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 41%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 30%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 10.8% | 11.4% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 96.0% | 53.3% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 20.8% | 54.5% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 8.7% | 12.0% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 22.1% | 18.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 11.4% | 10.8% | ↑ | Top 36% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 53.3% | 96.0% | ↓ | Top 20% |
| Gross margin | 54.5% | 20.8% | ↑ | Bottom 27% |
| Operating margin | 12.0% | 8.7% | ↑ | Bottom 26% |
| Net margin | 9.6% | 6.9% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 18.2% | 22.1% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 15.8% | — | Top 8% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 11.9% | — | Bottom 36% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.93×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -3.3%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.7%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -34.8 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 0.02×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 14.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 1.31%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.14%
- Shareholder yield
- 1.46%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.9%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.8%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 8
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +76.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.2%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 8 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $60.00
- Target vs current price
- +9.8%
- Analysts with a rating
- 6
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 67%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | +87.6% | +1.4% | +6.1% | +5.1% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | +33.3% | +1.6% | +23.8% | +11.4% | +32.7% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | +66.7% | +0.2% | +9.8% | +2.7% | +19.3% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +117.4% | +1.2% | +18.8% | +19.0% | +17.7% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | +57.9% | +0.5% | +12.2% | +14.0% | +15.1% |
| May 6, 2025 | +12.9% | +1.0% | -1.4% | +0.3% | -6.2% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | +104.9% | +1.1% | +10.0% | +11.0% | +10.1% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | +145.5% | +2.6% | +31.2% | +57.9% | +27.9% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | $1.30 | $0.69 | +87.6% | $354.1M |
| May 5, 2026 | $1.16 | $0.87 | +33.3% | $343.0M |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $1.50 | $0.90 | +66.7% | $341.1M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $1.50 | $0.69 | +117.4% | $354.0M |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.90 | $0.57 | +57.9% | $336.6M |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.70 | $0.62 | +12.9% | $21.1M |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $1.25 | $0.61 | +104.9% | $331.7M |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.81 | $0.33 | +145.5% | $323.0M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 10.2× | 10.0× | 53th | Top 17% |
| P/E (forward) | 11.0× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.0× | — | — | Top 8% |
| EV / Sales | 0.96× | — | — | Top 10% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 19.16% | — | — | Top 15% |
| Earnings yield | 9.85% | — | — | Top 17% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 8.2× – 49.2× since Sep 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +81.9%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +53.3%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +21.9%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 2
- Days above the 200-day average
- 292
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +2.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +4.2%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +1.6%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +22.4%
- RSI (14)
- 55.5
- Relative volume
- 0.76×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 25.5%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 7th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.78
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.30
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -2.6%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -26.0%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2022 | Aug 12, 2024 | -50.2% | 535 days | 324 days (Nov 25, 2025) |
| Mar 26, 2021 | Oct 29, 2021 | -43.4% | 151 days | 163 days (Jun 24, 2022) |
| Oct 23, 2020 | Nov 4, 2020 | -17.3% | 8 days | 4 days (Nov 10, 2020) |
| Jan 19, 2021 | Jan 29, 2021 | -14.3% | 8 days | 9 days (Feb 11, 2021) |
| May 18, 2026 | Jun 3, 2026 | -12.2% | 11 days | 13 days (Jun 23, 2026) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.40B
- P/E (TTM)
- 10.2
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $5.38
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.47B
- Dividend yield
- 1.39%
- 52-week range
- $29.74 – $56.74
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B | $988.2M | $1.10B | $1.25B | $1.39B |
| Gross profit | $200.9M | $137.8M | $83.9M | $225.9M | $622.0M |
| Operating income | $96.8M | $12.1M | -$39.7M | $77.0M | $147.9M |
| Net income | $80.6M | $15.0M | -$29.7M | $62.0M | $118.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.16 | $0.59 | -$1.18 | $2.39 | $4.48 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $323.0M | $331.7M | $331.1M | $336.6M | $354.0M | $365.8M | $369.4M | $383.7M |
| Net income | $19.7M | $31.4M | $17.7M | $22.9M | $39.2M | $38.4M | $30.1M | $33.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.76 | $1.21 | $0.67 | $0.87 | $1.49 | $1.45 | $1.15 | $1.29 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $29.9M | -$1.3M | $171.7M | $340.3M | $269.7M |
| Capital expenditure | -$14.0M | -$2.1M | -$10.9M | -$11.9M | -$6.4M |
| Free cash flow | $15.9M | -$3.4M | $160.8M | $328.4M | $263.3M |
| Dividends paid | -$15.1M | -$15.9M | -$16.2M | -$16.2M | -$16.3M |
| Net share buybacks | -$2.4M | $828,000 | -$290,000 | $348,000 | -$993,000 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $139.4M
- Total assets
- $4.01B
- Total liabilities
- $3.04B
- Total debt
- $146.3M
- Net debt
- $6.9M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $977.3M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | $0.20 | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | $0.20 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $0.20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | $0.16 | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | $0.16 | Sep 12, 2025 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | $0.16 | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | $0.16 | Mar 21, 2025 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | $0.16 | Dec 13, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 564,032
- Days to cover
- 3.30
- Change vs previous report
- +0.0%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Dec 16, 2004
- 2-for-1
- Jan 8, 1996
- 3-for-2
- Jan 6, 1995
- 3-for-2
- Jun 16, 1992
- 3-for-2
- Mar 18, 1986
- 3-for-2