Stocks · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services
Upstart Holdings, Inc. UPST
$22.81 -0.61% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $2.18B
Weak trendHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Revenue over the last four quarters was $1.29B, up 45.3% from a year earlier, slowing from 54.7% a quarter earlier.
- Over the past year the stock returned -56.2%, behind the S&P 500 by 71.3 percentage points.
- Net debt is 18.0× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 8%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 24%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 18%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 44%
- Gross marginTop 4%
- Operating marginBottom 14%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 2%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 4%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 5%
- Interest coverTop 48%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 25%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 8%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 29%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 43%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 20%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 4%
- 6-month returnBottom 9%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 4%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 4%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 9%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 10%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 17%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 48%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 6%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 11%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 6%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 1%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 5%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 54.7% | 45.3% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 95.4% | 95.4% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | -0.7% | 4.8% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | -9.2% | -23.1% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 45.3% | 54.7% | ↓ | Top 8% |
| Gross margin | 95.4% | 95.4% | ↓ | Top 4% |
| Operating margin | 4.8% | -0.7% | ↑ | Bottom 14% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | -0.7% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -23.1% | -9.2% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 2.0% | — | Top 44% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 8.0% | — | Bottom 24% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- -2.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 10.9%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 11.3%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -86.8 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 17.99×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 1.0×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 4.09%
- Shareholder yield
- 4.09%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +6.7%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +9.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 5 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -26.5%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.7%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $39.25
- Target vs current price
- +72.1%
- Analysts with a rating
- 22
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 45%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | -10.2% | +3.0% | +2.7% | -2.5% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | -117.6% | -2.8% | -10.6% | +1.0% | -15.7% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | -2.1% | +0.3% | -17.7% | -27.5% | -26.1% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +23.8% | -2.7% | -18.4% | -10.2% | -17.4% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | +33.3% | -0.3% | -23.4% | -16.5% | -38.8% |
| May 6, 2025 | +57.9% | -1.2% | +1.8% | -2.0% | +57.2% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | +750.0% | -5.1% | +22.5% | -34.2% | -34.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | +59.1% | +2.8% | +25.6% | +36.0% | +20.4% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.16 | $0.18 | -10.2% | $364.7M |
| May 5, 2026 | -$0.07 | $0.39 | -117.6% | $308.2M |
| Feb 10, 2026 | $0.46 | $0.47 | -2.1% | $296.1M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.52 | $0.42 | +23.8% | $285.9M |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.36 | $0.27 | +33.3% | $257.3M |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.30 | $0.19 | +57.9% | $220.4M |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $0.26 | -$0.04 | +750.0% | $211.3M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -$0.06 | -$0.15 | +59.1% | $162.1M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 44.6× | 86.9× | 22th | Bottom 25% |
| P/E (forward) | 33.7× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 43.0× | — | — | Bottom 29% |
| EV / Sales | 2.92× | — | — | Top 43% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -13.59% | — | — | Bottom 8% |
| Earnings yield | 2.24% | — | — | Bottom 25% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 20.6× – 318.5× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -9.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -5.4%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -17.0%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -29.3%
- RSI (14)
- 30.8
- Relative volume
- 0.93×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 46.8%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 0th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 3.59
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.63
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -56.9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -74.3%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2021 | May 2, 2023 | -96.9% | 387 days | Not yet recovered |
| Feb 12, 2021 | Mar 8, 2021 | -54.1% | 15 days | 8 days (Mar 18, 2021) |
| Mar 22, 2021 | May 13, 2021 | -49.0% | 37 days | 10 days (May 27, 2021) |
| Jun 7, 2021 | Jul 15, 2021 | -33.5% | 27 days | 19 days (Aug 11, 2021) |
| Dec 22, 2020 | Dec 30, 2020 | -18.8% | 5 days | 3 days (Jan 5, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $2.18B
- P/E (TTM)
- 44.6
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.51
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.29B
- 52-week range
- $22.56 – $55.22
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $849.9M | $853.3M | $547.7M | $677.0M | $1.08B |
| Gross profit | $846.6M | $837.8M | $508.1M | $628.8M | $1.02B |
| Operating income | $133.7M | -$109.1M | -$240.0M | -$128.4M | $54.3M |
| Net income | $135.4M | -$108.7M | -$240.1M | -$128.6M | $53.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.43 | -$1.31 | -$2.87 | -$1.44 | $0.45 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $173.0M | $226.4M | $220.4M | $265.1M | $285.9M | $304.2M | $318.6M | $377.2M |
| Net income | -$6.8M | -$2.8M | -$2.4M | $5.6M | $31.8M | $18.6M | -$6.6M | $16.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.08 | -$0.03 | -$0.03 | $0.05 | $0.25 | $0.17 | -$0.07 | $0.16 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $168.4M | -$657.9M | -$111.7M | $186.3M | -$147.7M |
| Capital expenditure | -$15.1M | -$22.9M | -$12.1M | -$10.0M | -$18.4M |
| Free cash flow | $153.2M | -$680.8M | -$123.8M | $176.3M | -$166.1M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $263.9M | -$157.9M | $21.3M | $29.1M | $25.3M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $456.0M
- Total assets
- $3.17B
- Total liabilities
- $2.37B
- Total debt
- $2.03B
- Net debt
- $1.57B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $797.5M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 27,649,788
- Days to cover
- 6.86
- Change vs previous report
- +6.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.