Stocks · Basic Materials · Industrial Materials
USA Rare Earth Inc USAR
$13.59 -1.52% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $1.80B
Weak trendExpensive vs sector
Next earnings report: Nov 5, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The diluted share count rose 111.8% in a year.
- The stock is 65% below its highest close of the past year.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Basic Materials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 22%
- Gross marginBottom 3%
- Operating marginBottom 4%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 45%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 11%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 8%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 2%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 7%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 32%
- 6-month returnBottom 34%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 18%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 7%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 26%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 6%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 21%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 6%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 5%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 11%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 25%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 1%
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | -54.1% | — | Bottom 3% | |
| Operating margin | -949.5% | — | Bottom 4% | |
| Net margin | -2159.3% | — | — | |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -1865.4% | — | — | |
| Return on invested capital | -4.2% | — | Bottom 22% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.9%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 94.3%
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- Net cash
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -105.51%
- Shareholder yield
- -105.51%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +111.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +88.4%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 10, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 2 of 6
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -100.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -2.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $34.57
- Target vs current price
- +154.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 5
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 100%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | -33.9% | -1.5% | +3.5% | -8.9% | — |
| May 13, 2026 | +7.7% | -0.5% | -21.8% | -20.4% | -24.3% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -58.3% | -7.7% | -0.9% | +52.5% | +38.9% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | -1582.1% | -6.2% | +0.3% | +3.6% | +53.9% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | +38.5% | -5.0% | +5.7% | -16.9% | +4.0% |
| May 14, 2025 | -159.4% | +0.5% | +6.4% | +40.7% | +83.7% |
| Mar 31, 2025 | — | -0.2% | +26.9% | +117.6% | +107.9% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | — | -2.0% | -0.4% | +25.0% | -21.7% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | -$0.15 | -$0.11 | -33.9% | $5.8M |
| May 13, 2026 | -$0.12 | -$0.13 | +7.7% | $5.7M |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -$0.19 | -$0.12 | -58.3% | $1.6M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | -$1.64 | -$0.10 | -1582.1% | — |
| Aug 11, 2025 | -$0.08 | -$0.13 | +38.5% | — |
| May 14, 2025 | -$0.19 | $0.32 | -159.4% | — |
| Mar 31, 2025 | -$0.15 | — | — | — |
| Feb 18, 2025 | -$0.02 | — | — | — |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 16.85× | — | — | Bottom 7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -13.62% | — | — | Bottom 8% |
| Earnings yield | -17.68% | — | — | Bottom 11% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 14.0× – 75.3× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -5.7%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.4%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -18.7%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -29.6%
- RSI (14)
- 32.6
- Relative volume
- 0.80×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 77.2%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 47th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- -0.12
- Correlation with S&P 500
- -0.01
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -64.9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -69.2%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | -69.2% | 55 days | Not yet recovered |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Mar 26, 2025 | -69.0% | 8 days | 95 days (Aug 12, 2025) |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Sep 8, 2025 | -29.0% | 18 days | 18 days (Oct 2, 2025) |
| Dec 10, 2024 | Mar 6, 2025 | -22.8% | 57 days | 6 days (Mar 14, 2025) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.80B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$2.40
- Revenue (TTM)
- $13.2M
- 52-week range
- $11.45 – $43.98
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $968.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1.6M |
| Gross profit | $811.8M | -$210,000 | $0 | -$389,000 | -$1.4M |
| Operating income | $555.3M | -$24.3M | -$985,212 | -$15.6M | -$59.5M |
| Net income | $331.6M | -$23.8M | $6.7M | -$15.7M | -$297.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.69 | -$0.87 | $0.28 | -$0.40 | -$3.31 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1.6M | $5.7M | $5.8M |
| Net income | -$1.9M | -$6.8M | $51.8M | -$142.5M | -$156.7M | -$50.2M | -$67.0M | -$10.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.05 | -$0.64 | $0.62 | -$1.54 | -$1.64 | -$0.37 | -$0.34 | -$0.05 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $709.8M | -$14.8M | -$21.9M | -$13.0M | -$49.0M |
| Capital expenditure | -$232.8M | -$5.1M | -$6.0M | -$3.1M | -$37.4M |
| Free cash flow | $476.9M | -$19.9M | -$27.9M | -$16.1M | -$86.3M |
| Dividends paid | -$471.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$5.0M | $0 | $13.1M | -$246.9M | $493.9M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.59B
- Total assets
- $3.00B
- Total liabilities
- $453.4M
- Total debt
- $13.5M
- Net debt
- -$1.58B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $2.54B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 10, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 39,049,732
- Days to cover
- 3.19
- Change vs previous report
- +26.9%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.