Stocks · Financial Services · Financial - Mortgages
Velocity Financial, Inc. VEL
$14.59 -0.14% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $572.7M
Weak trend
Next earnings report: Oct 29, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin widened to 70.7% from 29.5% a year earlier.
- At 5.3× trailing earnings, the shares trade at the lowest P/E of the company's past five years.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 7 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +14.3%).
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Financial Services sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 13%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 42%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 23%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 8%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 15%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 1%
- Gross marginTop 18%
- Operating marginTop 2%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 22%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 23%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 8%
- Interest coverTop 44%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 5%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 32%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 49%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 10%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 3%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 28%
- 6-month returnBottom 5%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 15%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 15%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 9%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 18%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 16%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 20%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 10%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 41%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 47%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 22%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 8%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 44.1% | 32.5% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 46.1% | 25.7% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 51.2% | 78.9% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 29.5% | 70.7% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 5.0% | 3.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 32.5% | 44.1% | ↓ | Top 13% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 25.7% | 46.1% | ↓ | Top 42% |
| Gross margin | 78.9% | 51.2% | ↑ | Top 18% |
| Operating margin | 70.7% | 29.5% | ↑ | Top 2% |
| Net margin | 15.4% | 15.3% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 3.2% | 5.0% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 114.2% | — | Top 1% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 42.2% | — | Top 8% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 0.21×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- 1.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.4%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -104.0 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 14.33×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 1.2×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.42%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.42%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +4.0%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +4.8%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 7
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 7 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +14.3%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 5 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $22.00
- Target vs current price
- +50.8%
- Analysts with a rating
- 7
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 71%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | +9.1% | -0.8% | +2.4% | +0.6% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +6.3% | +1.2% | -10.0% | -11.4% | -9.3% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | +38.8% | +0.6% | -2.4% | +2.8% | -3.9% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | +3.0% | -0.4% | -2.3% | +0.9% | +7.8% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | +34.4% | -1.0% | +14.8% | +14.5% | +11.4% |
| May 1, 2025 | +5.8% | -0.1% | -6.4% | -6.6% | -3.3% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | +25.0% | +0.9% | +5.3% | -1.4% | -10.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -2.1% | -0.5% | +2.7% | +5.2% | -5.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.71 | $0.65 | +9.1% | $95.0M |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.68 | $0.64 | +6.3% | $85.2M |
| Mar 11, 2026 | $0.93 | $0.67 | +38.8% | $102.9M |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.69 | $0.67 | +3.0% | $172.3M |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $0.73 | $0.54 | +34.4% | $151.6M |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.55 | $0.52 | +5.8% | $119.3M |
| Mar 6, 2025 | $0.60 | $0.48 | +25.0% | $124.9M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.47 | $0.48 | -2.1% | $49.3M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 5.3× | 10.4× | 0th | Top 5% |
| P/E (forward) | 5.2× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.5× | — | — | Bottom 49% |
| EV / Sales | 10.52× | — | — | Bottom 10% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.92% | — | — | Bottom 32% |
| Earnings yield | 18.78% | — | — | Top 5% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 6.5× – 17.0× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -19.9%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +25.7%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -17.5%
Most of the move came from earnings growth.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.4%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -15.9%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -20.0%
- RSI (14)
- 17.1
- Relative volume
- 1.09×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 22.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 18th percentile · Low for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.26
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.15
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -29.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -29.7%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2021 | Mar 14, 2023 | -42.1% | 300 days | 101 days (Aug 8, 2023) |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Oct 2, 2026 | -29.7% | 189 days | Not yet recovered |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Sep 13, 2023 | -25.6% | 25 days | 44 days (Nov 14, 2023) |
| Nov 14, 2023 | Dec 5, 2023 | -22.1% | 14 days | 70 days (Mar 18, 2024) |
| Dec 16, 2024 | May 9, 2025 | -21.5% | 98 days | 162 days (Dec 31, 2025) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $572.7M
- P/E (TTM)
- 5.3
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $2.74
- Revenue (TTM)
- $701.3M
- 52-week range
- $14.18 – $21.40
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $181.3M | $248.4M | $131.7M | $482.8M | $714.4M |
| Gross profit | $75.6M | $90.0M | $131.7M | $210.6M | $681.0M |
| Operating income | $39.8M | $44.6M | $76.8M | $96.4M | $511.3M |
| Net income | $29.2M | $32.2M | $52.3M | $68.4M | $105.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.86 | $0.93 | $1.52 | $1.91 | $2.75 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $119.3M | $124.9M | $119.3M | $166.0M | $172.3M | $182.3M | $167.9M | $178.8M |
| Net income | $15.8M | $20.6M | $18.4M | $26.0M | $25.4M | $34.8M | $22.4M | $25.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.43 | $0.56 | $0.51 | $0.68 | $0.65 | $0.90 | $0.56 | $0.63 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $57.6M | $48.7M | $61.1M | $37.8M | $18.2M |
| Capital expenditure | -$135,000 | -$326,000 | -$180,000 | -$289,000 | -$281,000 |
| Free cash flow | $57.3M | $48.3M | $60.9M | $37.5M | $17.9M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $137,000 | $149,000 | $1.4M | $10.1M | $44.1M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $245.2M
- Total assets
- $7.96B
- Total liabilities
- $7.24B
- Total debt
- $7.05B
- Net debt
- $6.81B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $721.5M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 6, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,559,486
- Days to cover
- 12.98
- Change vs previous report
- +0.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.