Stocks · Utilities · Independent Power Producers

Vistra Corp. VST

$140.02 +0.19% Close, Oct 2, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $47.21B

Weak trendHigh risk

Next earnings report: Nov 6, 2026

Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.

Three things to know

  1. Operating margin narrowed to 2.3% from 33.5% a year earlier.
  2. Revenue over the last four quarters was $15.98B, down 28.4% from a year earlier, slowing from -25.5% a quarter earlier.
  3. The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.

PromtFinance scores

Each score is a percentile within the Utilities sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 5, 2026.

Growth14Very weak

How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.

  • Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 3%
  • EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 28%
  • FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 9%
  • Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 15%
  • Revenue growth accelerationBottom 24%
Quality19Very weak

Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.

  • Return on invested capitalBottom 8%
  • Gross marginBottom 8%
  • Operating marginBottom 7%
  • Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 36%
  • Accruals (lower is better)Top 7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 12%
  • Interest coverBottom 7%
Value55Neutral

How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.

  • Earnings yieldBottom 22%
  • Free-cash-flow yieldTop 15%
  • EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 38%
  • Sales / enterprise valueTop 45%
  • P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 34%
Momentum10Very weak

Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.

  • 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 5%
  • 6-month returnTop 38%
  • 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 6%
  • Distance from 52-week highBottom 16%
  • Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 32%
Revisions60Neutral

Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).

  • Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 18%
  • Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 14%
  • Share of analysts rating BuyTop 1%
  • Upside to consensus price targetTop 11%
Stability18Very weak

Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.

  • Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 15%
  • Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 16%
  • Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 12%

What changed

Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).

MeasureBeforeNow
Revenue growth (YoY)-25.5%-28.4%↓
EPS growth (YoY)-5.4%-5.4%↓
Gross margin40.6%13.0%↓
Operating margin33.5%2.3%↓
FCF margin7.4%8.6%↑

Fundamental momentum

MeasureNow (TTM)Year / quarter beforeSector rank
Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)-28.4%-25.5%↓Bottom 3%
EPS growth (TTM, YoY)-5.4%-5.4%↓Bottom 28%
Gross margin13.0%40.6%↓Bottom 8%
Operating margin2.3%33.5%↓Bottom 7%
Net margin13.9%10.7%↑—
Free-cash-flow margin8.6%7.4%↑—
Return on invested capital0.9%—Bottom 8%
Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR-1.6%—Bottom 15%

Quality of earnings and balance sheet

Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
2.31×
Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
-6.8%
Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
-0.7%
Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
+31.3 pp
Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
3.00×
Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
0.3×

Shareholder returns

Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
0.65%
Net buyback yield (TTM)
0.25%
Shareholder yield
0.91%
Share count change, 1 year
+0.1%
Share count change, 3-year CAGR
-3.4%

Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.

Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 10, 2026).

Earnings and expectations

Earnings momentum

Consecutive EPS beats
0
Beats in the last 8 reports
3 of 8
Average EPS surprise, last 4
-6.9%
Average 2-day reaction, last 8
-1.6%
Positive 20 days after report
3 of 8

Analysts

Consensus price target
$215.67
Target vs current price
+54.0%
Analysts with a rating
23
Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
91%
Consensus rating
Buy

How the stock reacted to recent reports

Report dateEPS surprise2 days5 days20 days60 days
Aug 7, 2026-52.8%-0.6%+3.6%+2.0%—
May 7, 2026+117.4%-2.7%-9.9%-2.9%-1.5%
Feb 26, 2026-76.5%+0.8%-6.8%-13.6%-15.0%
Nov 6, 2025-15.9%-2.5%-5.9%-7.0%-19.2%
Aug 6, 2025-7.4%-4.2%-0.0%-10.2%-4.9%
May 8, 2025-273.5%+1.0%+10.9%+22.5%+53.4%
Feb 27, 2025+34.1%-12.3%-14.4%-16.3%+4.4%
Nov 7, 2024+350.0%+7.6%+12.7%+27.6%+36.1%

Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.

Earnings history

Report dateEPSEstimateSurpriseRevenue
Aug 7, 2026$0.76$1.61-52.8%$4.02B
May 7, 2026$2.87$1.32+117.4%$5.64B
Feb 26, 2026$0.54$2.31-76.5%$4.58B
Nov 6, 2025$1.75$2.08-15.9%$4.97B
Aug 6, 2025$0.81$0.88-7.4%$4.25B
May 8, 2025-$0.93$0.54-273.5%$5.17B
Feb 27, 2025$1.14$0.85+34.1%$7.36B
Nov 7, 2024$5.40$1.20+350.0%$6.29B

Valuation in context

MultipleNow5-year median5-year percentileSector rank (cheapness)
P/E (trailing)23.6×25.7×36thBottom 22%
P/E (forward)16.2×———
EV / EBITDA10.3×——Top 38%
EV / Sales4.17×——Top 45%
Free-cash-flow yield2.91%——Top 15%
Earnings yield4.24%——Bottom 22%

P/E over the past five years

Range 8.1× – 79.0× since Mar 31, 2022. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.

What moved the stock over the past year

Price return, 1 year
-30.5%
Earnings per share growth (TTM)
-5.4%
Change in P/E multiple
-25.3%

Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.

Technical state

Trend checklist

  • ✗ Price above 20-day average
  • ✗ Price above 50-day average
  • ✗ Price above 200-day average
  • ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
  • ✓ MACD histogram positive

Trend quality

Days above the 50-day average
0
Days above the 200-day average
0
50-day average slope (20 days)
-4.5%
200-day average slope (20 days)
-1.9%
Distance from 50-day average
-2.3%
Distance from 200-day average
-9.6%
RSI (14)
46.8
Relative volume
2.65×

Risk and drawdowns

Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
40.0%
Volatility vs own 5-year history
45th percentile · Normal for this stock
Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
1.52
Correlation with S&P 500
0.46
Current drawdown from 1-year high
-33.6%
Maximum drawdown, 3 years
-48.9%

Largest declines in the past six years

From peakTo lowDeclineLengthRecovery
Jan 23, 2025Apr 4, 2025-48.9%50 days57 days (Jun 27, 2025)
Sep 22, 2025May 19, 2026-38.2%165 daysNot yet recovered
May 28, 2024Jul 30, 2024-35.0%43 days37 days (Sep 20, 2024)
Feb 24, 2021May 17, 2021-33.2%57 days225 days (Apr 6, 2022)
Jun 7, 2022Sep 30, 2022-23.3%80 days201 days (Jul 21, 2023)

Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.

Financial statements

Market cap
$47.21B
P/E (TTM)
23.6
EPS, diluted (TTM)
$5.94
Revenue (TTM)
$15.98B
Dividend yield
0.65%
52-week range
$132.66 – $217.10
FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.33B$17.84B$15.54B$19.38B$16.97B
Gross profit$60.0M$3.81B$5.17B$7.69B$2.97B
Operating income-$988.0M$2.64B$3.91B$6.23B$1.33B
Net income-$1.27B-$1.23B$1.49B$2.66B$944.0M
EPS (diluted)-$2.62-$3.26$3.58$7.00$2.21
Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue$5.53B$7.36B$5.17B$4.25B$4.97B$2.34B$4.65B$4.02B
Net income$1.89B$441.0M-$268.0M$327.0M$652.0M$233.0M$1.03B$305.0M
EPS (diluted)$5.25$1.13-$0.93$0.83$1.75$0.55$2.88$0.76
FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Operating cash flow-$206.0M$485.0M$5.45B$4.56B$4.07B
Capital expenditure-$1.03B-$1.30B-$1.68B-$2.08B-$3.94B
Free cash flow-$1.24B-$816.0M$3.78B$2.48B$129.0M
Dividends paid-$290.0M-$302.0M-$313.0M-$305.0M-$306.0M
Net share buybacks-$471.0M-$1.95B-$1.25B-$1.27B-$1.03B

Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.

Cash and short-term investments
$435.0M
Total assets
$42.60B
Total liabilities
$37.11B
Total debt
$19.89B
Net debt
$19.46B
Shareholders’ equity
$5.48B

As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 10, 2026).

Dividends

Ex-dateAmountPaid
Sep 21, 2026$0.23Sep 30, 2026
Jun 22, 2026$0.23Jun 30, 2026
Mar 20, 2026$0.23Mar 31, 2026
Dec 22, 2025$0.23Dec 31, 2025
Sep 19, 2025$0.23Sep 30, 2025
Jun 18, 2025$0.23Jun 30, 2025
Mar 20, 2025$0.22Mar 31, 2025
Dec 20, 2024$0.22Dec 31, 2024

Short interest

Shares sold short
9,701,865
Days to cover
2.04
Change vs previous report
-10.0%

FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.

Stock splits

Aug 9, 2013
1-for-50
Nov 1, 2004
1-for-10
Feb 27, 2003
3-for-1