Agree Realty falls 3.9% after quarterly results and revised investment guidance

What happened

Agree Realty (ADC) fell 3.9% on October 21, 2026, because of its quarterly results and guidance revisions. The stock closed at $64.49 after opening 0.2% above the previous close, with trading volume 1.3 times its 20-day average. The move came while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% on the day and the Real Estate sector median fell 0.7%, leaving the stock 3.2 percentage points worse than the sector median. The company reported third-quarter 2026 funds from operations of $1.15 per share, a 4.9% increase from the prior-year quarter, and said portfolio occupancy remained at 99.8%, according to Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research. Management also lowered 2026 investment volume guidance to $1.6 billion (from $1.7 billion previously) and raised expected dispositions to a $100–$150 million range, noting recent acquisitions averaged a 7.3% cap rate, according to Seeking Alpha and The Motley Fool.

How big was the move

The stock’s decline was 3.7 times a typical daily move for this stock. Trading volume at 1.3 times its 20-day average signaled elevated investor attention compared with a normal day for the name. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 1.7% while the S&P 500 rose 0.5% over the same span. In the past five years the stock had five sessions with a decline of at least 3.9%; twenty trading days later the median result was a gain of 2.3%, and 5 of 5 were higher. Market sensitivity was low, with a beta of 0.01, indicating the stock tends to move less than the market.

The technical picture

The stock traded 2.6% below its 20-day moving average, 7.5% below its 50-day moving average and 13.6% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 36, in a neutral range between 30 and 70. The shares were 21.4% below the 52-week high. Over one month the stock fell 4.2%, over three months it fell 19.2%, and over one year it fell 14.9%, leaving it 30.1 percentage points behind the S&P 500 across the past year. Volatility was 17% annualized over 60 days, lower than 68% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $810.3 million, which grew 17.7% from a year earlier, compared with revenue growth one quarter earlier of 18.2%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.94, and earnings per share growth from a year earlier rose 12.8%. Gross margin was 70.5% (a year earlier: 87.7%), while operating margin was 49.3% (a year earlier: 46.9%). Free-cash-flow margin was 64.7% and return on invested capital was 30.8%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 5.6 times EBITDA, and share count over one year increased by 11.7%.

Valuation measures included 33.2 times trailing earnings and 34.0 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 6.3%. The price to trailing earnings was lower than 95% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 38.6 times earnings). PromtFinance scores ranked Growth 78 (Positive), Quality 93 (Exceptional), Revisions 85 (Strong), Stability 95 (Exceptional), with Value 44 (Weak) and Momentum 33 (Weak). Market value was $8.34 billion.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The last report, released October 20, 2026, showed earnings per share of $1.15 against $0.47 expected, 143.2% above estimates. That report also flagged third-quarter 2026 funds from operations of $1.15 per share and portfolio occupancy of 99.8%, as reported by Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research. Consecutive quarters beating estimates stood at 1, and the average surprise over the last four reports was 35.0% above estimates. Typical two-day reaction after recent reports was a fall of 0.3%. The next report was scheduled for February 9, 2027.

Analysts numbered 32 on the coverage list, with a consensus rating of Buy. Seventy-two percent of ratings were Buy or Strong Buy and the consensus price target was $81.00, 25.6% above the closing price.

What to watch

• February 9, 2027: next scheduled earnings report.
• Company guidance changes: investment volume guidance lowered to $1.6 billion and dispositions raised to a $100–$150 million range.
• Portfolio metrics: occupancy remained at 99.8% in third-quarter 2026 results.
• Valuation and coverage: consensus price target $81.00, 25.6% above the closing price.