Amdocs falls 30.1% after earnings and T‑Mobile dispute prompt weak fiscal‑2027 outlook

What happened

Amdocs (DOX) fell 30.1% on November 4, 2026, because management warned fiscal 2027 would be materially affected by a contractual dispute with T‑Mobile. The company had reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results in line with estimates and disclosed Q4 earnings per share of $1.98, matching consensus. Management said its fiscal 2027 outlook assumes a material adverse effect from the T‑Mobile dispute and forecast pro forma revenue declines of 7–11% and operating margins of 19.2–19.8%. It also said backlog had fallen nearly 10% to $3.5 billion. Barrons and Seeking Alpha led coverage of the results and the dispute, while Business Wire and GlobeNewsWire reported that multiple law firms and securities firms began investigations or encouraged investor inquiries.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $43.66 and fell 30.1% on the day, after it opened 31.2% below the previous close. Trading volume ran 9.4 times its 20-day average, and the drop was 6.2 times a typical daily move for this stock. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% on the day while the technology sector median rose 0.1%, leaving the stock 30.2 percentage points worse than the sector median. Over the last five sessions the shares fell 29.8%, while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 0.7%.

The technical picture

The stock traded well below its short- and long-term moving averages: 27.7% below its 20-day moving average, 27.6% below its 50-day moving average and 29.8% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) read 18, below 30 and often called oversold. The shares sit 49.0% below the 52-week high and have fallen 25.4% over one month and 26.2% over three months. Volatility was 77% annualized over 60 days, the highest reading of the past five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through June 30, 2026, revenue was $4.65 billion, which grew 0.1% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $4.20, down 14.3% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 37.8% versus 37.2% a year earlier, while operating margin improved to 17.5% from 15.3% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin stood at 13.7% and return on invested capital was 12.7%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 1.0 times EBITDA, and share count over one year decreased by 4.9%.

Valuation metrics paint a mixed picture. The stock traded at 10.4 times trailing earnings and 5.9 times expected forward earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 9.5%. Its price to trailing earnings reading was the lowest of the past five years, versus a five-year median of 18.5 times earnings. That low multiple sits against PromtFinance scores that rank Amdocs highly for Value at 98 (Exceptional) but weak on Growth at 18 and Momentum at 11. The company’s market value was $6.76 billion on the session date.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Amdocs last reported on November 3, 2026, with Q4 earnings per share of $1.98 against $1.98 expected, 0.0% above estimates. The company had zero consecutive quarters beating estimates and an average surprise over the last four reports of 1.0% above estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports have seen the stock fell 2.6%. Eleven analysts cover the stock, with a consensus rating of Buy and a consensus price target of $71.00, which is 62.6% above the closing price on November 4, 2026. Sixty-four percent of those analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy. The next scheduled report is November 10, 2026.

The market’s reaction highlights a contrast between near-term operational resilience and the immediate earnings risk tied to the T‑Mobile dispute. Management said that, excluding the dispute, certain core businesses showed mid-single-digit growth and that recent aOS wins underpinned parts of the business. But the company chose to model a material adverse effect into fiscal 2027 guidance, which appears to have driven the large intraday repricing.

What to watch

• November 10, 2026: next report date for Amdocs earnings and possible updates to fiscal 2027 guidance
• Management's commentary and legal filings regarding the contractual dispute with T‑Mobile and any change to the assumed material adverse effect
• Backlog updates and bookings, following disclosure that backlog fell nearly 10% to $3.5 billion
• Developments from the multiple law firms and securities firms that announced investigations or investor inquiries after the T‑Mobile disclosure
• Trading volume and volatility trends