Domino's falls 4.8% after third-quarter results because of muted same-store sales

What happened

Domino's (DPZ) fell 4.8% on October 13, 2026, after reporting third-quarter results that showed weaker same-store sales and a muted sales outlook. The company said third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.19 billion and earnings per share were $4.60, against $4.36 expected, 5.5% above estimates, according to Reuters and Seeking Alpha. Management highlighted slower global retail sales growth excluding foreign-currency effects and forecast muted annual same-store sales growth, citing heightened competition and cautious consumer spending.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $296.10 and fell 4.8% on the day; it fell 2.2% over the last five sessions. Trading volume was 2.5 times its 20-day average, and the Size of the move was 2.2 times a typical daily move for this stock. The S&P 500 on the day was unchanged while the Consumer Cyclical sector median on the day rose 0.5%, leaving the stock 5.3 percentage points worse than the sector median. The stock's beta of 0.65 suggests it tends to move less than the market.

In the past five years the stock had 12 sessions with a decline of at least 4.8%. Twenty trading days later the median result was a gain of 1.8%, and 8 of 12 were higher, which places this session in the context of prior similar declines.

The technical picture

The stock was 1.0% below its 20-day moving average and 8.8% below its 50-day moving average, while it was 15.2% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 40, between 30 and 70, a neutral range, and the stock was 33.1% below the 52-week high.

Over one month the stock fell 8.5%, over three months it fell 4.8%, and over one year it fell 27.1%; the one year versus the S&P 500 was 46.3 percentage points behind the S&P 500. Volatility was 34% annualized over 60 days, higher than 72% of its own readings over five years, indicating elevated price swings relative to recent history.

Given the technical picture, the trend signals longer-term weakness while short-term momentum sits in a neutral range.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 6, 2026, Domino's reported revenue of $5.07 billion, which grew 4.5% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $18.15, which rose 6.1% year over year. Gross margin was 40.0% (a year earlier: 39.8%) and operating margin was 19.8% (a year earlier: 19.2%). Return on invested capital was 62.3%, and the balance sheet showed net debt of 1.1 times EBITDA. Share count over one year decreased by 3.0%.

Valuation stood at 16.3 times trailing earnings and 15.6 times expected earnings. The Price to trailing earnings was lower than 95% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 26.8 times earnings), indicating the stock trades at a valuation well below its recent historical norms. PromtFinance scores showed Value 69 (Positive), Quality 96 (Exceptional), and Stability 81 (Strong), offset by Momentum 23 (Very weak) and Revisions 28 (Very weak).

Earnings and analyst expectations

The October 13, 2026, report showed earnings per share of $4.60 against $4.36 expected, 5.5% above estimates. That beat followed an average surprise over the last four reports of 0.2% below estimates, and it represented one consecutive quarter beating estimates. Typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 0.6%.

The company said global retail sales reached $4.84 billion and global retail sales growth excluding foreign-currency effects slowed to 3.2%. Global net store growth was 175 stores, including 26 net U.S. openings and 149 net international openings. Management also reported U.S. same-store sales rose just 0.3% in the third quarter while international same-store sales growth excluding foreign-currency effects was 0.2%, and noted customers were ordering more frequently but spending less per order.

Analysts show a Consensus rating of Buy, with 50% of analysts giving the stock a Buy rating. The Consensus price target is $372.19, which is 25.7% above the closing price. Number of analysts with a rating is 52. Investors should note the next report is scheduled for February 22, 2027.

What to watch

• October 13, 2026: third-quarter results showing revenue of $1.19 billion and EPS of $4.60, 5.5% above estimates.
• Management's guidance for annual same-store sales growth and commentary on competition and consumer spending.
• Trending of U.S. same-store sales and international same-store sales growth excluding foreign-currency effects.
• Trading volume relative to its 20-day average and near-term price action around the 20-day moving average.
• Next report on February 22, 2027.