FMC falls 30.5% after sharply cut third-quarter outlook and large charges

What happened

FMC fell 30.5% on October 15, 2026, after it sharply reduced its third-quarter outlook and disclosed commercial actions that will generate large charges. The company said revenue is now expected to be $65 million to $125 million. It said Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be negative $565 million to negative $510 million. FMC said the revision incorporates commercial actions intended to accelerate movement of FMC product that will generate approximately $625 million to $675 million in charges impacting revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. Barrons and GlobeNewsWire reported the guidance revision and the company statement. GlobeNewsWire and Newsfile Corp reported that multiple law firms had opened investigations into potential securities law violations following the guidance revision.

How big was the move

The stock fell 30.5% on the day, a move 4.9 times a typical daily move for this stock. Trading volume was 6.8 times its 20-day average, signaling heavy participation in the sell-off. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% while the Basic Materials sector median rose 1.6%, leaving the stock 32.1 percentage points worse than the sector median and underscoring that the decline was mostly driven by company news. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 37.0% while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 0.3%, reinforcing the company-specific nature of the drop.

The technical picture

The stock was well below its short- and long-term averages: it was 37.2% below its 20-day moving average, 45.4% below its 50-day moving average and 56.7% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 16, below the common oversold threshold of 30. The share price was 82.0% below the 52-week high and had fallen 48.0% over one month, 49.9% over three months and 81.5% over one year. Volatility was 100% annualized over 60 days, higher than 95% of its own readings over five years, highlighting the extreme price swings in recent sessions.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through June 30, 2026, revenue was $3.25 billion, a decline of 21.3% from a year earlier and following a decline of 16.6% one quarter earlier. Diluted earnings per share was $-22.02, and earnings per share growth from a year earlier fell 2852.5%. Gross margin was 35.3%, down from 39.2% a year earlier, while operating margin was 71.6% versus 16.4% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 5.1% and return on invested capital was 32.8%. Share count over one year decreased by 0.2%.

On valuation metrics the stock showed a Price to forward earnings of 4.3 times expected earnings and a Free-cash-flow yield of 15.8%. Market value stood at $1.05 billion, placing the company at the smaller end of the Basic Materials sector. PromtFinance scores ranked the company weak on Value (33), Quality (37) and very weak on Growth (2) and Momentum (2), while Revisions was strong at 86.

Earnings and analyst expectations

FMC last reported on July 29, 2026, with earnings per share of $0.26 against $0.22 expected, 18.0% above estimates, marking two consecutive quarters beating estimates. The average surprise over the last four reports was 15.7% above estimates, though the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 2.1%. The next report is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Analysts' consensus price target is $14.60, which is 159.8% above the closing price. Forty-two analysts cover the stock, with 48% of analysts rating the stock Buy and the consensus rating at Hold.

What to watch

• October 29, 2026: next earnings report date.
• The company’s revised guidance: revenue $65 million to $125 million and Adjusted EBITDA negative $565 million to negative $510 million.
• The size and timing of the approximately $625 million to $675 million in charges tied to commercial actions.
• Any filings or updates regarding the investigations by multiple law firms reported after the guidance revision.
• Trading volume relative to the 20-day average and any further volatility signals (the stock was trading at 6.8 times its 20-day average on the October 15, 2026, session).