Hayward jumps after quarterly results lift guidance and beat estimates

What happened

Hayward (HAYW) rose 13.5% on October 28, 2026, because of third-quarter fiscal 2026 results that beat expectations and prompted the company to raise its full-year guidance. The company reported third-quarter net sales of $260 million, a 6% increase year-over-year driven by price realization and higher volumes, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.18 versus a Zacks consensus of $0.15. Hayward said its aftermarket business and demand for energy-efficient automation helped insulate results amid weaker pool construction, and it raised its full-year 2026 guidance, according to Business Wire and Seeking Alpha.

How big was the move

The stock’s gain of 13.5% was 5.6 times a typical daily move for this stock and outpaced the Industrials sector median by 13.3 percentage points; the sector median rose 0.2% on the day. Trading volume ran at 2.6 times its 20-day average, reflecting an unusually active session. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% on the same day; the index had fallen 0.2% over the previous five sessions while Hayward rose 22.6% over that span. The stock opened 5.9% above the previous close, and its market value was $2.69 billion at the close.

The technical picture

The stock finished the session 21.2% above its 20-day moving average, 14.3% above its 50-day moving average and 1.6% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend, while the Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 79, above 70, a level often called overbought. Hayward was 16.6% below its 52-week high. Over one month the stock rose 19.9% even though it had fallen 3.8% over three months and fallen 4.1% over one year, leaving it 16.8 percentage points behind the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. Volatility was 38% annualized over 60 days, lower than 53% of its own readings over five years, indicating recent swings are moderate versus the stock’s history.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 26, 2026, Hayward recorded revenue of $1.18 billion, which grew 7.6% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $0.78, which rose 24.9% versus a year earlier. Gross margin was 44.6%, down from 48.8% a year earlier, while operating margin improved to 21.7% from 20.9% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin stood at 13.6% and return on invested capital was 7.2%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 2.3 times EBITDA, and the company’s share count over one year decreased by 2.6%.

Valuation metrics show the stock at 19.0 times trailing earnings and 17.2 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 6.0%. The price to trailing earnings is lower than 76% of its own readings over the past five years; the five-year median is 26.2 times earnings. Those measures suggest investors are assigning a lower multiple than in most of the past five years, implying the market is treating Hayward more as a value turnaround than as a growth story.

PromtFinance scores rank Hayward strong on Value at 82 and weak on Growth at 25, with Quality 56 and Momentum 55. Revisions score 40 and Stability 64. Together those scores indicate the company scores well on valuation but lag on growth and recent analyst revisions.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Hayward’s October 28, 2026, report showed adjusted diluted EPS of $0.18 against $0.15 expected, 18.0% above estimates, and the company said it raised its full-year 2026 guidance. The company has beaten estimates in 10 consecutive quarters, with an average surprise over the last four reports of 12.7% above estimates. Historically, the typical two-day reaction after recent reports has been the stock rose 3.4%, making the 13.5% jump on October 28 larger than the usual post-earnings move.

Analysts’ consensus rating is Hold based on 10 analysts, with 20% of those ratings classified as Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $15.75, which is 6.5% above the closing price on October 28, 2026. Investors will watch the company’s next scheduled report on November 4, 2026, and any further commentary from management on margin trends and aftermarket demand.

What to watch

• October 28, 2026: reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results with net sales of $260 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.18, beating estimates by 18.0%.
• Four quarters through September 26, 2026: revenue of $1.18 billion and diluted EPS of $0.78, with gross margin 44.6% and operating margin 21.7%.
• Valuation: price to trailing earnings of 19.0 times and price to forward earnings of 17.2 times, versus a five-year median of 26.2 times earnings.
• Technical levels: the stock 21.2% above its 20-day moving average, Relative Strength Index (14 days) at 79, and the stock 16.6% below its 52-week high.
• Balance sheet and cash flow: net debt of 2.3 times EBITDA and free-cash-flow margin of 13.6%.