Intel falls 8.0% after Reuters reports FCC waiver and ahead of earnings

Session of October 22, 2026 · Published October 23, 2026 · 3 min read

What happened

Intel (INTC) fell 8.0% on October 22, 2026, after a Reuters report that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission granted it a waiver relating to the use of foreign-made robotic devices, and as investors positioned ahead of the company’s third-quarter report. The stock opened 5.5% below the previous close and traded on volume 1.3 times its 20-day average. News outlets also flagged pre-earnings focus on whether heavy manufacturing investment and supply constraints will translate into improved results.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On October 22, 2026, INTC closed at $85.49, down 8.0% on the day and 17.0% lower than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The decline was a large, mostly company-specific move: Intel fell 8.0% while the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Technology sector median fell 1.5%. The stock’s performance was 6.5 percentage points worse than the sector median and the move was 1.9 times a typical daily move for this stock. Trading volume at 1.3 times its 20-day average indicated heavier-than-normal activity around the drop.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is October 22, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 4.9%, so the latest move equals 1.7 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 9.7%) are unusual.

The technical picture

Technically, the stock traded 19.3% below its 20-day moving average and 16.6% below its 50-day moving average, while it remained 0.1% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average was above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend even as the stock weakened recently. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 30, inside a neutral range between 30 and 70, and the share price was 39.9% below the 52-week high.

Closing price over the past year. INTC ends the period 39.3% below its 52-week high, below its 50-day average ($102.46) and below its 200-day average ($85.59).

Shorter-term performance showed sharp weakness: the stock fell 30.3% over one month and fell 7.4% over three months. Over one year it rose 124.3%, leaving it 110.5 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 for that period. Volatility has been elevated: the stock’s 60-day annualized volatility was 67%, a reading higher than 75% of its own readings over five years. That elevated volatility helps explain why large intraday moves have appeared more frequently, and why a beta of 2.07 means the stock tends to move more than the market on news or sentiment.

Fundamentals and valuation

Over the four quarters through June 27, 2026, Intel recorded revenue of $57.03 billion, which grew 7.5% from a year earlier. Gross margin widened to 38.9% from 29.8% a year earlier, while operating margin narrowed to 0.1% from 22.8% a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share for the period were $-2.11. Free-cash-flow margin stood at 5.0% and return on invested capital was 0.0%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $16.1B, 25.4% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

The balance sheet showed net debt of 10.3 times EBITDA and share count over one year increased by 16.8%, reflecting substantial dilution. On valuation metrics the stock traded at 55.0 times expected earnings and showed a free-cash-flow yield of 0.6%, leaving the shares priced for considerably stronger profitability or growth than the most recent results imply.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Investors were positioning ahead of Intel’s third-quarter results, with coverage highlighting whether heavy manufacturing investment and supply constraints can translate into improved results. The company’s last report, on July 23, 2026, showed earnings per share of $0.42 against $0.21 expected, 100.0% above estimates. Intel has delivered four consecutive quarters beating estimates, and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was a rise of 0.3%.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows -$2.16, against -$0.67 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Analysts’ consensus price target was $111.72, which is 30.7% above the closing price on October 22, 2026, based on 85 analysts. The consensus rating was Hold, with 38% of analysts assigning a Buy or Strong Buy. Those metrics point to mixed sentiment: analysts see upside from the current price, but the consensus rating is cautious and the stock’s current valuation requires material improvement in cash generation and margins.

What to watch

October 23–31, 2026: pre-earnings attention on Q3 guidance and supply considerations (Benzinga and Zacks Investment Research).
July 23, 2026: last earnings report, earnings per share $0.42 against $0.21 expected, 100.0% above estimates.
Consensus price target $111.72, which is 30.7% above the closing price.
In the past five years the stock had 14 sessions with a decline of at least 8.0%; twenty trading days later the median result was a decline of 2.4%, and 6 of 14 were higher.
The U.S. FCC granted a waiver relating to the use of foreign-made robotic devices, according to Reuters.

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