Eli Lilly rises 6.6% after third-quarter results driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound

What happened

Eli Lilly (LLY) rose 6.6% on October 29, 2026, after it reported third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion and raised its full-year revenue outlook, driven by strong sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Management said the metabolic portfolio produced record sales. Mounjaro and Zepbound together contributed $16.08 billion in sales for the quarter. The company also reported adjusted earnings per share of $7.48 and said roughly $900 million of items benefited the quarter, including $410 million of Jardiance milestones and favorable rebate and discount adjustments. Eli Lilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $91 billion to $92 billion while trimming profit guidance to reflect deal-related charges.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $1,373.70 after rising 6.6% on the day, a move that was 3.4 times a typical daily move for this stock. Trading volume was 1.9 times its 20-day average, indicating heavier activity alongside the price jump. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on the day while the healthcare sector median rose 0.5%; Eli Lilly’s performance was 6.1 percentage points better than the sector median. Over the last five sessions the stock rose 5.1%, compared with the S&P 500’s five-session gain of 0.7%.

In the past five years the stock had 10 sessions with a gain of at least 6.6%. Twenty trading days later the median result was a gain of 0.2%, and 5 of 10 were higher. The session’s earnings release was the clear catalyst for the move because of the results. The stock’s beta of 0.41 suggests it tends to move less than the market even on big news days.

The technical picture

The stock is trading well above its moving averages: 11.5% above its 20-day moving average, 15.1% above its 50-day moving average, and 26.1% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend. The stock has spent 127 consecutive trading days above its 200-day average. The relative strength index over 14 days is 74, a level often called overbought.

Shares are 2.5% below their 52-week high and have risen 18.7% over one month, 19.6% over three months, and 67.5% over one year, a gain 55.5 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility was 31% annualized over 60 days, which is higher than 51% of its own readings over five years.

These technicals show a stock that has enjoyed a sustained uptrend and has recently accelerated. The overbought reading on the RSI and the short distance to the 52-week high suggest profit-taking could emerge. At the same time, the extended time above the 200-day average indicates the trend is intact.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, Eli Lilly reported revenue of $86.46 billion, which grew 45.5% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $30.81, up 50.7% year over year. Gross margin was 78.8%, down from 83.0% a year earlier, while operating margin improved to 46.4% from 44.4%. Free-cash-flow margin stood at 22.7% and return on invested capital was 31.0%.

The balance sheet showed net debt of 1.0 times EBITDA, and share count over one year decreased by 0.6%. Valuation measures show a price to trailing earnings of 44.6 times trailing earnings and price to forward earnings of 40.3 times expected earnings. The price to trailing earnings is lower than 71% of its own readings over the past five years, where the five-year median is 50.8 times earnings. Free-cash-flow yield was 1.6% at the session.

PromtFinance sector-ranked scores flagged Growth at 86 (Strong), Quality at 87 (Strong), Momentum at 89 (Strong), Stability at 94 (Exceptional), with Value at 69 (Positive) and Revisions at 71 (Positive). Those scores reflect rapid revenue and earnings expansion alongside a premium valuation.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Earnings for the quarter delivered adjusted EPS of $7.48 against $5.68 expected, a surprise 31.7% above estimates. This was the eighth consecutive quarter in which the company beat estimates; the average surprise over the last four reports was 23.6% above estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports have seen the stock rise 1.6%.

Analyst coverage includes 45 analysts with a consensus rating of Buy; 73% of the ratings are Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $1,355.25, which is 1.3% below the closing price on October 29, 2026. The company’s next scheduled report is February 10, 2027.

What to watch

• February 10, 2027: next scheduled earnings report
• Full-year 2026 revenue outlook of $91 billion to $92 billion and any updates to profit guidance
• Sales trends for Mounjaro and Zepbound after the quarter’s combined contribution of $16.08 billion
• Any further details on the roughly $900 million of quarter items, including the $410 million of Jardiance milestones
• Changes in analyst estimates or consensus price target among the 45 covering analysts