Lockheed Martin rises 5.1% after stronger-than-expected results and backlog report

What happened

Lockheed Martin (LMT) rose 5.1% on October 26, 2026, after the company reported stronger-than-expected results and a record backlog. The company reported stronger-than-expected results for the first nine months of 2026, including a record $292 billion backlog driven by major contracts and defense budget support, according to Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research. Trading volume was 2.0 times its 20-day average, and the session was 2.7 times a typical daily move for this stock, a large, mostly company-specific advance.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $635.20, having risen 5.1% on the day and risen 15.9% over the last five sessions, while the S&P 500 rose 0.7% on the day and fell 0.2% over five sessions. That made the stock’s performance 4.7 percentage points better than the Industrials sector median, which rose 0.5% on the day. Market sensitivity was low, with a beta of 0.21, so the session’s strength was not driven by broad market gains. Volume running at 2.0 times its 20-day average reinforced that the move was driven by company news rather than market-wide flows. In the past five years the stock had 6 sessions with a gain of at least 5.1%; twenty trading days later the median result was a gain of 3.0%, and 5 of 6 were higher.

The technical picture

Technically the stock sits well above short- and medium-term averages: 19.1% above its 20-day moving average, 17.5% above its 50-day moving average and 12.1% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average remains below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend despite the recent run. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 83, above the 70 level often called overbought, and the shares are 8.2% below the 52-week high. Volatility is elevated, at 30% annualized over 60 days, higher than 84% of its own readings over five years.

Shorter-term performance has been strong: the stock rose 22.3% over one month and 9.3% over three months, and it has gained 30.2% over one year, 16.2 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Those gains, paired with a high momentum score, point to intense buying interest but also raise the risk of mean reversion given the overbought technicals and the 50-day/200-day crossover.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 27, 2026, revenue was $79.12 billion, having grown 7.9% from a year earlier and following revenue growth of 7.2% one quarter earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $28.15, which rose 57.2% from a year earlier, while gross margin improved to 11.7% from 8.2% a year earlier and operating margin rose to 11.8% from 8.3%. Free-cash-flow margin was 10.6% and return on invested capital was 19.8%.

On the balance sheet, net debt was 1.4 times EBITDA and share count over one year decreased by 0.6%. Valuation stands at 22.6 times trailing earnings and 20.8 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 6.0%. The price to trailing earnings is higher than 71% of its own readings over the past five years; the five-year median is 20.6 times earnings. Investors are paying a premium for current profitability and momentum, while the share count reduction and strong cash generation support the valuation.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Lockheed Martin’s last report, on October 22, 2026, showed earnings per share of $7.97 against $7.52 expected, 6.0% above estimates, and marked two consecutive quarters beating estimates. The average surprise over the last four reports was 1.5% below estimates, and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was the stock fell 0.7%. The next report is scheduled for February 4, 2027.

Analysts’ consensus price target is $627.82, which is 1.2% below the closing price, based on 37 analysts with a consensus rating of Buy and 59% of ratings at Buy or Strong Buy. That gap suggests street expectations are generally in line with the current market price, leaving limited upside to the consensus target from the close on October 26, 2026.

PromtFinance scores show a mixed picture: Momentum is 81 (Strong) and Stability is 92 (Exceptional), while Revisions is 23 (Very weak). Value, Growth and Quality sit in neutral to positive territory, reflecting healthy margins and returns but a premium valuation and weak recent analyst revisions.

What to watch

• October 22, 2026: last report showing EPS of $7.97 versus $7.52 expected, 6.0% above estimates
• February 4, 2027: next scheduled earnings report
• Backlog figure: a record $292 billion reported for the first nine months of 2026
• Momentum measures and revisions: Momentum score 81 (Strong) and Revisions score 23 (Very weak)