Nvidia falls 1.3% as talks over Reflection AI and partnership news circulate

What happened

Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1.3% to $226.32 on October 12, 2026, after reports it was in early-stage talks about Reflection AI and Navitas named the company as a partner in a power-delivery project. Trading volume was 0.6 times its 20-day average, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% on the day.

How big was the move

The decline amounted to 0.6 times a typical daily move for the stock. The data classifies that size as "An ordinary session for this stock (a normal-sized move)."

Over the last five sessions the stock fell 5.3%, while the S&P 500 over the same span rose 0.4%. The technology sector median on the day fell 1.4%, leaving the stock 0.1 percentage points better than the sector median. The stock’s market sensitivity is a beta of 1.84, indicating it tends to move more than the market.

The technical picture

The stock opened 0.2% below the previous close and traded 0.5% below its 20-day moving average. It was 1.7% above its 50-day moving average and 11.9% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has spent 52 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average.

The Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 49, a neutral reading between 30 and 70, and the stock is 7.0% below its 52-week high. Over one month the stock rose 3.7% and over three months it rose 6.9%.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through July 26, 2026, the company reported revenue of $302.97 billion, which grew 83.4% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $7.91, which rose 125.4% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 74.7% versus 69.8% a year earlier, and operating margin was 65.2% versus 58.1% a year earlier.

Free-cash-flow margin stood at 41.9% and return on invested capital was 59.5%. The balance sheet shows net debt of 0.1 times EBITDA, and share count over one year decreased by 1.0%.

The stock trades at 28.6 times trailing earnings and 24.4 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 2.3%. Its price-to-trailing-earnings ratio is lower than 95% of its own readings over the past five years, compared with a five-year median of 57.4 times earnings. PromtFinance scores rank Nvidia highly on growth at 98 (Exceptional) and strong on quality at 80 (Strong), while its value score is 61 (Neutral).

Earnings and analyst expectations

Nvidia’s last report was on August 26, 2026, when earnings per share were $2.22 against $2.09 expected, 6.2% above estimates. The company has reported 14 consecutive quarters beating estimates, with average surprise over the last four reports of 5.2% above estimates. The typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock rose 0.8%.

The next report is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Analysts’ consensus price target is $339.17, which is 49.9% above the closing price, based on 79 analysts with 76% rating the stock Buy and a consensus rating of Buy. That gap between the consensus target and the share price underscores a divergence between bullish analyst expectations and the stock’s current valuation metrics.

What to watch

• Reports say Nvidia is in talks to acquire or increase investment in Reflection AI; discussions are at an early stage with no terms agreed and could still collapse, though a deal might emerge within weeks. (Reported by PYMNTS and Proactive Investors)
• Navitas Semiconductor announced a collaboration with Nvidia to develop a 24 kW, 800 V-to-12 V DC-DC power delivery board using Navitas's GaNFast technology, identifying Nvidia as a partner on the product. (Reported by GlobeNewsWire)
• Next earnings report scheduled for November 18, 2026.
• The stock trades 28.6 times trailing earnings and 24.4 times expected earnings.
• Nvidia’s volatility is 36% annualized over 60 days, lower than 81% of its own readings over five years.