RXO jumps 22.5% after C.H. Robinson agrees to buy the trucking company for about $5.8 billion

What happened

RXO rose 22.5% on October 5, 2026, after C.H. Robinson Worldwide agreed to acquire the trucking company in a cash-and-stock transaction that implied an enterprise value of approximately $5.8 billion, according to Barrons and Business Wire. The deal will pay $17.25 per RXO share in cash plus 0.0856 shares of C.H. Robinson common stock, implying total consideration of $30.25 per RXO share and leaving RXO shareholders with about 11% of the combined company on closing. The companies said the combination is expected to expand logistics capabilities, increase network density and deliver about $300M in annual run-rate cost savings.

How big was the move

The stock opened 24.0% above the previous close and closed up 22.5% as trading volume hit 10.7 times its 20-day average. The move was 5.0 times a typical daily move for this stock and 22.6 percentage points better than the Industrials sector median, making it a large, mostly company-specific move that came as the acquisition was announced. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% on the day; over the last five sessions the stock rose 42.2% while the S&P 500 rose 1.2%.

The technical picture

The stock was 39.3% above its 20-day moving average and 34.8% above its 50-day moving average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend. The stock has traded 13 consecutive trading days above its 200-day moving average and was 4.2% below the 52-week high. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 82, above 70, a level often called overbought. Its 60-day annualized volatility was 72%, higher than 75% of its own readings over five years, which signals elevated price swings compared with the stock’s recent history.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through June 30, 2026, revenue was $6.09 billion, which grew 9.5% from a year earlier. Gross margin widened to 41.6% from 16.2% a year earlier while operating margin narrowed to 0.6% from 1.2%. Diluted earnings per share for that period was $-0.61, free-cash-flow margin was 0.3% and return on invested capital was 1.3%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 23.0 times EBITDA and share count over one year increased by 0.7%.

Valuation measures were elevated: price to forward earnings was 219.4 times expected earnings and free-cash-flow yield was 0.5%. PromtFinance scores highlighted a strong market run: Momentum scored 93 (Exceptional), while Value scored 35 (Weak), Growth 31 (Weak) and Quality 19 (Very weak). Revisions and Stability each scored in the single digits. At a market value of $3.86 billion before the close and a beta of 2.06, the stock has shown outsized sensitivity to market moves and to company news.

Earnings and analyst expectations

RXO last reported on August 6, 2026, with earnings per share of $0.06 against $0.04 expected, 67.2% above estimates; that was one consecutive quarter beating estimates. Over the last four reports the average surprise was 18.6% below estimates and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 5.2%. The next report is scheduled for November 5, 2026.

Analysts give a consensus rating of Hold with a consensus price target of $25.73, which is 10.2% below the closing price. Twenty-one analysts cover the stock and 24% rate the shares Buy.

What to watch

• Closing conditions and regulatory approvals required for the C.H. Robinson acquisition; expected cost savings of about $300M in annual run-rate expense reductions.
• Next earnings report on November 5, 2026, and any updated guidance or detail on integration plans.
• Movements in net debt and any balance-sheet adjustments announced as part of the transaction.
• Insider or major shareholder votes and the timeline to closing, including any changes to the proposed cash-and-stock split of $17.25 cash plus 0.0856 C.H. Robinson shares.