Sandisk falls 13.5% after results beat but guidance and market sell-off weigh

What happened

Sandisk (SNDK) fell 13.5% on October 30, 2026, after the company reported fiscal Q1 results that materially exceeded expectations and offered guidance that kept the stock under pressure. The move occurred as the S&P 500 fell 1.8% and the technology sector median fell 3.7%, and Sandisk’s decline was 9.7 percentage points worse than the sector median. Market coverage noted that revenue and adjusted EPS surged on strong AI and data-center demand, while management flagged capacity constraints even as it outlined guidance and disclosed significant buybacks.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $1,150.89, down 13.5% on the day and down 7.0% over the last five sessions. Trading volume was 2.1 times its 20-day average, and the session’s move measured 2.6 times a typical daily move for this stock. The stock’s market sensitivity is reflected in a beta of 2.67, indicating it tends to move more than the market. In the past five years the stock had 10 sessions with a decline of at least 13.5%; twenty trading days later the median result was a gain of 5.9%, and 5 of 10 were higher.

The technical picture

The stock sat 18.9% below its 20-day moving average, 26.1% below its 50-day moving average and 8.6% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, even as the stock remained 51.1% below the 52-week high. Over one month the stock fell 35.6%, and over three months it fell 10.6%, while over one year it rose 463.2%. The relative strength index (14 days) was 33, inside a neutral range between 30 and 70. Volatility was 81% annualized over 60 days, lower than 79% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through October 2, 2026, Sandisk reported revenue of $28.97 billion, growing 272.4% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $125.61, with gross margin at 80.0% versus 27.9% a year earlier, and operating margin at 72.5% versus 4.7% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 59.9% and return on invested capital was 64.4%. The balance sheet showed net cash of $5.14 billion, while share count over one year increased by 3.4%.

On valuation metrics the stock traded at 9.2 times trailing earnings and 5.4 times expected forward earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 9.7%. Sector-ranked PromtFinance scores placed Sandisk at 92 for Value, 98 for Growth and 86 for Quality, with Revisions at 99 and Stability at 32.

Those figures underline the contrast investors faced on the day: very strong recent profitability and cash generation versus a share price that had already climbed sharply over the past year and showed acute short-term weakness.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Sandisk reported on October 29, 2026, adjusted earnings per share of $49.51 against $46.67 expected, 6.1% above estimates, marking eight consecutive quarters beating estimates. The company disclosed revenue of $11.03B for fiscal Q1 2027, and commentary highlighted that nearly 90% of incremental quarterly revenue came from the data-center market. Management provided Q2 fiscal 2027 guidance calling for revenue of $12.2–$12.6B and adjusted EPS of $55.00–$57.00.

Analysts maintained a consensus price target of $2,163.75, which is 88.0% above the closing price, based on 16 analysts covering the stock; 88% of ratings were Buy or Strong Buy and the consensus rating was Buy. The company’s average surprise over the last four reports was 37.4% above estimates, and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was to rise 0.4%.

Company disclosures in the quarter included an 8-for-1 stock split and $5.0 billion repurchased in buybacks, even as diluted share count remained about 3% above a year earlier. Media coverage also emphasized that management said capacity was constrained and that the company expected strong AI-related demand to continue.

What to watch

• Next report: February 4, 2027
• Management guidance for Q2 fiscal 2027: revenue of $12.2–$12.6B and adjusted EPS of $55.00–$57.00
• Recent quarter: revenue of $11.03B and adjusted EPS of $49.51 reported October 29, 2026
• Share count over one year: increased by 3.4%
• Buybacks disclosed in the quarter: $5.0 billion repurchased