Walmart rises as Warner Bros. ad partnership and Connect growth highlight digital push

What happened

Walmart (WMT) rose 2.0% on October 6, 2026, after the company announced a Warner Bros. partnership and reported strong expansion in its Connect segment. The session was ordinary for the stock. Trading volume ran at 1.0 times its 20-day average and the S&P 500 rose 0.6% on the day.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $107.20, a change on the day that was 1.1 times a typical daily move for this stock. Over the last five sessions the stock rose 0.4%, compared with the S&P 500, which rose 1.9% over five sessions. The stock’s market sensitivity is a beta of 0.55, meaning the stock tends to move less than the market, and its performance that day was 1.5 percentage points better than the Consumer Defensive sector median, which rose 0.5%.

The technical picture

The stock sat 0.1% above its 20-day moving average but 1.4% below its 50-day moving average and 9.3% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 50, inside the neutral range between 30 and 70, and the stock was 20.7% below its 52-week high. Volatility was 29% annualized over 60 days, higher than 85% of its own readings over five years.

Those indicators point to a stock that has steadied after weaker recent momentum. The one-month change was a rise of 0.1% while the three-month change was a fall of 5.2%, and over one year the stock rose 5.0%, leaving it 11.4 percentage points behind the S&P 500 over the same period.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through July 31, 2026, Walmart reported revenue of $735.84 billion, which grew 6.2% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $2.77, which rose 4.1% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 25.2% (a year earlier: 24.9%) and operating margin was 4.4% (a year earlier: 4.2%). Return on invested capital stood at 12.7% and free-cash-flow margin was 1.8%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 1.5 times EBITDA and share count over one year decreased by 0.5%.

Valuation measures put the stock at 38.7 times trailing earnings and 37.1 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 1.6%. The price to trailing earnings is higher than 57% of its own readings over the past five years; the five-year median was 36.5 times earnings. PromtFinance scores rank Walmart as very weak on Value at 23, neutral on Growth at 57, and positive on Quality at 66, with Stability at 73.

Taken together, the fundamentals show modest top-line growth and improving margins alongside a relatively rich valuation by the company’s recent standards. The free-cash-flow margin and yield remain thin, while return on invested capital is solid at 12.7%, suggesting the company still generates returns on deployed capital even as valuation sits above its five-year median.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Walmart’s next report was scheduled for November 19, 2026. The last report, on August 20, 2026, showed earnings per share of $0.81 against $0.74 expected, 9.2% above estimates, marking four consecutive quarters beating estimates and an average surprise over the last four reports of 3.6% above estimates. Historically, the typical two-day reaction after recent reports has been a fall of 2.5%.

Analysts covering the stock numbered 66, with 71% rating the stock Buy and a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target was $128.84, which is 20.2% above the closing price on October 6, 2026.

What to watch

• November 19, 2026: next earnings report date
• August 20, 2026: last report—earnings per share of $0.81 against $0.74 expected, 9.2% above estimates
• Announcement of the Warner Bros. partnership to expand Walmart’s presence in television advertising (reported by Business Insider)
• Reported 43% growth in the Connect segment and notes on e-commerce, advertising, membership and delivery improvements (reported by Zacks Investment Research)
• Consensus price target of $128.84 from 66 analysts