Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. ALSN
$115.75 -1.88% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $9.78B
Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 18.4× trailing earnings, higher than 90% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Net debt is 3.4× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- Operating margin narrowed to 25.0% from 31.2% a year earlier.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
Growth63Neutral
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 14%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 30%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 39%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 46%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 28%
Quality70Positive
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 33%
- Gross marginTop 41%
- Operating marginTop 4%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 50%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 41%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 40%
- Interest coverTop 41%
Value32Weak
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 39%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 38%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 49%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 11%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 13%
Momentum70Positive
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 13%
- 6-month returnBottom 47%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 18%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 25%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 47%
Revisions2Very weak
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 16%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 13%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 10%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 18%
Stability73Positive
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 26%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 14%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 40%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 40%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 14.0% | 15.5% | ↑ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -25.6% | -28.5% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 48.4% | 39.5% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 31.3% | 25.0% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 22.2% | 19.8% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 15.5% | 14.0% | ↑ | Top 14% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -28.5% | -25.6% | ↓ | Bottom 30% |
| Gross margin | 39.5% | 48.4% | ↓ | Top 41% |
| Operating margin | 25.0% | 31.3% | ↓ | Top 4% |
| Net margin | 14.3% | 23.8% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 19.8% | 22.2% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 9.6% | — | Top 33% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 2.8% | — | Top 46% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.76×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -4.6%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.6%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +127.4 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 3.40×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 5.6×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.96%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 1.30%
- Shareholder yield
- 2.26%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -1.2%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -2.6%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 4 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -22.2%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.1%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $126.00
- Target vs current price
- +8.9%
- Analysts with a rating
- 29
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 24%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | -12.1% | +1.5% | +3.8% | +10.3% | — |
| May 4, 2026 | -35.7% | -1.7% | -5.4% | -14.9% | -12.6% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | -24.4% | -1.7% | +5.4% | -6.9% | -4.0% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | -16.4% | -0.6% | -3.3% | +7.0% | +33.5% |
| Aug 4, 2025 | +4.1% | +0.4% | +0.0% | -0.4% | -4.9% |
| May 1, 2025 | +8.8% | +1.2% | +5.4% | +13.6% | -4.5% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | +5.8% | +0.0% | -9.1% | -14.8% | -14.8% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | +12.4% | +0.3% | +6.9% | +19.4% | +15.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | $2.18 | $2.48 | -12.1% | $1.57B |
| May 4, 2026 | $1.33 | $2.07 | -35.7% | $1.41B |
| Feb 23, 2026 | $1.18 | $1.56 | -24.4% | $737.0M |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $1.63 | $1.95 | -16.4% | $693.0M |
| Aug 4, 2025 | $2.29 | $2.20 | +4.1% | $814.0M |
| May 1, 2025 | $2.23 | $2.05 | +8.8% | $766.0M |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $2.01 | $1.90 | +5.8% | $796.0M |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $2.27 | $2.02 | +12.4% | $824.0M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 18.4× | 9.9× | 90th | Top 39% |
| P/E (forward) | 14.2× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.3× | — | — | Top 49% |
| EV / Sales | 3.65× | — | — | Bottom 11% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.47% | — | — | Top 38% |
| Earnings yield | 5.43% | — | — | Top 39% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 7.3× – 19.1× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- +33.8%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -28.5%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +91.2%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +2.5%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -5.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -1.6%
- RSI (14)
- 42.8
- Relative volume
- 0.99×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 32.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 78th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.89
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.42
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -14.9%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -34.1%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | Nov 17, 2025 | -34.1% | 206 days | 66 days (Feb 24, 2026) |
| May 14, 2021 | Oct 27, 2021 | -28.5% | 115 days | 318 days (Feb 2, 2023) |
| Apr 23, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | -20.6% | 18 days | Not yet recovered |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Oct 31, 2023 | -17.3% | 41 days | 61 days (Jan 30, 2024) |
| Oct 16, 2020 | Oct 29, 2020 | -16.9% | 9 days | 18 days (Nov 24, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $9.78B
- P/E (TTM)
- 18.4
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $6.29
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.70B
- Dividend yield
- 0.98%
- 52-week range
- $76.01 – $137.62
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.40B | $2.77B | $3.04B | $3.23B | $3.01B |
| Gross profit | $1.15B | $1.30B | $1.47B | $1.53B | $1.46B |
| Operating income | $669.0M | $784.0M | $919.0M | $992.0M | $973.0M |
| Net income | $442.0M | $531.0M | $673.0M | $731.0M | $623.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.13 | $5.53 | $7.40 | $8.31 | $7.33 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $824.0M | $796.0M | $766.0M | $814.0M | $693.0M | $737.0M | $1.41B | $860.0M |
| Net income | $200.0M | $175.0M | $192.0M | $195.0M | $137.0M | $99.0M | $112.0M | $181.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.27 | $2.01 | $2.23 | $2.29 | $1.63 | $1.18 | $1.33 | $2.15 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $635.0M | $657.0M | $784.0M | $801.0M | $824.0M |
| Capital expenditure | -$175.0M | -$167.0M | -$125.0M | -$143.0M | -$175.0M |
| Free cash flow | $460.0M | $490.0M | $659.0M | $658.0M | $649.0M |
| Dividends paid | -$81.0M | -$80.0M | -$83.0M | -$87.0M | -$91.0M |
| Net share buybacks | -$513.0M | -$278.0M | -$270.0M | -$254.0M | -$320.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $399.0M
- Total assets
- $8.72B
- Total liabilities
- $6.74B
- Total debt
- $4.11B
- Net debt
- $3.71B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.98B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | $0.29 | Aug 31, 2026 |
| May 18, 2026 | $0.29 | May 29, 2026 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | $0.29 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | $0.27 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | $0.27 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| May 19, 2025 | $0.27 | May 30, 2025 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | $0.27 | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Nov 18, 2024 | $0.25 | Nov 27, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 2,419,049
- Days to cover
- 3.83
- Change vs previous report
- -12.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.