Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
Fossil Group, Inc. FOSL
$7.22 +6.18% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $401.9M
Strong trendExpensive vs sectorHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 12, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Over the past year the stock returned +179.8%, ahead of the S&P 500 by 164.1 percentage points.
- The diluted share count rose 10.1% in a year.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 220 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 10%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 3%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 20%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 37%
- Gross marginTop 14%
- Operating marginBottom 22%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 43%
- Interest coverBottom 18%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 13%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 7%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 13%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 23%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 3%
- 6-month returnTop 9%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Top 1%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 2%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 8%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 5%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 48%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 12%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 38%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 11%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 39%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 19%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -11.4% | -9.1% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 55.7% | 56.7% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | -3.6% | 1.6% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | -4.4% | -4.2% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -9.1% | -11.4% | ↑ | Bottom 10% |
| Gross margin | 56.7% | 55.7% | ↑ | Top 14% |
| Operating margin | 1.6% | -3.6% | ↑ | Bottom 22% |
| Net margin | -7.1% | -5.5% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -4.2% | -4.4% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.6% | — | Bottom 37% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -15.8% | — | Bottom 3% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -4.9%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.4%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +0.1 pp
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 0.6×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.23%
- Shareholder yield
- 0.23%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +10.1%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +4.1%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jul 4, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 2
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 3 of 5
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -100.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.6%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 6 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $10.00
- Target vs current price
- +38.5%
- Analysts with a rating
- 36
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 25%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | +63.4% | +0.6% | +5.0% | -7.3% | — |
| May 13, 2026 | +89.5% | +3.8% | -1.8% | +6.3% | +36.2% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | -850.0% | +2.2% | +16.9% | +29.0% | +1.0% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | -3050.0% | -9.1% | -12.1% | +66.2% | +66.7% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | +60.0% | +3.4% | +80.6% | +68.6% | +17.1% |
| May 14, 2025 | — | -2.3% | +31.0% | +5.4% | +29.5% |
| Mar 12, 2025 | — | -0.8% | +2.3% | -27.4% | +13.3% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | — | -2.3% | -1.5% | +49.2% | +41.5% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | -$0.13 | -$0.36 | +63.4% | $209.7M |
| May 13, 2026 | -$0.03 | -$0.29 | +89.5% | $224.8M |
| Mar 11, 2026 | -$0.15 | $0.02 | -850.0% | $280.5M |
| Nov 13, 2025 | -$0.63 | -$0.02 | -3050.0% | $270.2M |
| Aug 13, 2025 | -$0.10 | -$0.25 | +60.0% | $220.4M |
| May 14, 2025 | -$0.10 | — | — | $233.3M |
| Mar 12, 2025 | $0.39 | — | — | $342.3M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -$0.51 | — | — | $287.8M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / Sales | 0.67× | — | — | Top 23% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -10.26% | — | — | Bottom 7% |
| Earnings yield | -17.78% | — | — | Bottom 13% |
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 16
- Days above the 200-day average
- 220
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +13.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +6.0%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +31.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +59.3%
- RSI (14)
- 72.2
- Relative volume
- 1.95×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 72.4%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 43th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.53
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.23
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- +0.0%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -62.2%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2021 | Apr 30, 2024 | -96.7% | 819 days | Not yet recovered |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Jan 4, 2021 | -35.7% | 14 days | 16 days (Jan 27, 2021) |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Oct 19, 2020 | -19.7% | 8 days | 18 days (Nov 12, 2020) |
| Nov 19, 2020 | Nov 30, 2020 | -11.1% | 6 days | 5 days (Dec 7, 2020) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $401.9M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$1.28
- Revenue (TTM)
- $985.2M
- 52-week range
- $1.70 – $7.33
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.87B | $1.68B | $1.41B | $1.14B | $1.00B |
| Gross profit | $966.4M | $830.7M | $685.1M | $597.2M | $563.1M |
| Operating income | $92.6M | -$1.5M | -$143.0M | -$103.9M | $23.1M |
| Net income | $25.4M | -$44.2M | -$157.1M | -$102.7M | -$78.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.48 | -$0.85 | -$3.00 | -$1.94 | -$1.45 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $287.8M | $342.3M | $233.3M | $220.4M | $270.2M | $280.5M | $224.8M | $209.7M |
| Net income | -$32.0M | -$7.6M | -$17.6M | -$2.3M | -$39.9M | -$18.6M | -$810,000 | -$10.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.60 | -$0.14 | -$0.33 | -$0.04 | -$0.76 | -$0.33 | -$0.01 | -$0.18 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $50.0M | -$110.9M | -$59.5M | $46.7M | -$57.9M |
| Capital expenditure | -$10.3M | -$13.3M | -$9.9M | -$6.8M | -$2.6M |
| Free cash flow | $39.7M | -$124.1M | -$69.4M | $39.9M | -$60.5M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$2.4M | -$12.4M | -$530,000 | -$536,000 | $930,000 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $79.0M
- Total assets
- $653.1M
- Total liabilities
- $579.1M
- Total debt
- $341.9M
- Net debt
- $263.0M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $89.9M
As of Jul 4, 2026 (filed Aug 13, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 7,369,529
- Days to cover
- 10.92
- Change vs previous report
- +5.9%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Apr 12, 2004
- 3-for-2
- Jun 10, 2002
- 3-for-2
- Aug 18, 1999
- 3-for-2
- Apr 9, 1998
- 3-for-2