Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts
Holley Inc. HLLY
$2.29 -2.14% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $281.7M
High risk
Next earnings report: Nov 6, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Net debt is 5.5× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
- The stock is 48% below its highest close of the past year.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 46%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 28%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 22%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 29%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 36%
- Gross marginTop 38%
- Operating marginTop 38%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 12%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 36%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 25%
- Interest coverBottom 28%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 44%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 17%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 23%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 49%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 33%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthTop 48%
- 6-month returnBottom 18%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 30%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 18%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 23%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 33%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 24%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 14%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 24%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 31%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 19%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 25%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 1.9% | 3.3% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 43.5% | 41.9% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 3.9% | 9.4% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 3.9% | 6.0% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 3.3% | 1.9% | ↑ | Bottom 46% |
| Gross margin | 41.9% | 43.5% | ↓ | Top 38% |
| Operating margin | 9.4% | 3.9% | ↑ | Top 38% |
| Net margin | 1.7% | -5.1% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 6.0% | 3.9% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.5% | — | Bottom 36% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -3.8% | — | Bottom 22% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -4.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.4%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +22.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 5.45×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 1.4×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.71%
- Shareholder yield
- 0.71%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 28, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 1
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 2 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- -3.5%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +7.0%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $4.00
- Target vs current price
- +74.7%
- Analysts with a rating
- 12
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 67%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | +66.7% | +7.4% | +10.2% | +1.4% | — |
| May 6, 2026 | +0.0% | -13.0% | -17.3% | -21.5% | -19.1% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | -55.6% | -12.4% | -16.7% | -22.3% | -26.6% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | -25.0% | +32.6% | +42.9% | +57.5% | +52.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | -10.0% | +31.4% | +66.2% | +88.2% | +46.6% |
| May 7, 2025 | -60.0% | -14.5% | +5.3% | +1.9% | -3.9% |
| Mar 11, 2025 | +450.0% | +24.2% | +2.1% | -1.2% | -12.1% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | -133.3% | +0.0% | -2.2% | -0.4% | +7.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.20 | $0.12 | +66.7% | $172.0M |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.05 | $0.05 | +0.0% | $147.3M |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.04 | $0.09 | -55.6% | $155.4M |
| Nov 7, 2025 | $0.03 | $0.04 | -25.0% | $138.4M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.09 | $0.10 | -10.0% | $166.7M |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.02 | $0.05 | -60.0% | $153.0M |
| Mar 11, 2025 | $0.11 | $0.02 | +450.0% | $140.1M |
| Nov 8, 2024 | -$0.01 | $0.03 | -133.3% | $134.0M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 27.1× | 23.7× | 69th | Bottom 44% |
| P/E (forward) | 5.6× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.8× | — | — | Top 23% |
| EV / Sales | 1.22× | — | — | Top 49% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.97% | — | — | Top 17% |
| Earnings yield | 3.69% | — | — | Bottom 44% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 4.2× – 215.7× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.2%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.7%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -18.2%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -27.5%
- RSI (14)
- 33.3
- Relative volume
- 0.60×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 56.1%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 46th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.52
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.34
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -47.8%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -65.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2022 | May 7, 2025 | -87.8% | 788 days | Not yet recovered |
| Nov 17, 2021 | Jan 27, 2022 | -17.8% | 48 days | 24 days (Mar 3, 2022) |
| Sep 27, 2021 | Oct 27, 2021 | -13.3% | 22 days | 10 days (Nov 10, 2021) |
| Jul 23, 2021 | Aug 18, 2021 | -10.6% | 18 days | 4 days (Aug 24, 2021) |
| Feb 1, 2021 | Jul 20, 2021 | -10.1% | 117 days | 2 days (Jul 22, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $281.7M
- P/E (TTM)
- 27.1
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.08
- Revenue (TTM)
- $613.1M
- 52-week range
- $2.25 – $4.48
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $692.8M | $688.4M | $659.7M | $602.2M | $613.5M |
| Gross profit | $286.8M | $253.7M | $256.1M | $246.7M | $252.5M |
| Operating income | $77.5M | $50.7M | $94.0M | $14.7M | $87.5M |
| Net income | -$27.1M | $73.8M | $19.2M | -$23.2M | $19.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.30 | $0.63 | $0.16 | -$0.20 | $0.16 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $134.0M | $140.1M | $153.0M | $166.7M | $138.4M | $155.4M | $147.3M | $172.0M |
| Net income | -$6.3M | -$37.8M | $2.8M | $10.9M | -$806,000 | $6.3M | $7.3M | -$2.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.05 | -$0.32 | $0.02 | $0.09 | -$0.01 | $0.05 | $0.06 | -$0.02 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $21.6M | $12.3M | $88.1M | $46.9M | $46.2M |
| Capital expenditure | -$15.2M | -$13.6M | -$5.9M | -$6.8M | -$32.6M |
| Free cash flow | $6.3M | -$1.3M | $82.2M | $40.1M | $13.7M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$847,000 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $69.0M
- Total assets
- $1.16B
- Total liabilities
- $712.6M
- Total debt
- $533.3M
- Net debt
- $464.3M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $449.7M
As of Jun 28, 2026 (filed Aug 5, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 3,280,189
- Days to cover
- 2.52
- Change vs previous report
- -2.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.