Accel Entertainment rises 13.2% after third-quarter results beat estimates

What happened

Accel Entertainment (ACEL) rose 13.2% on November 4, 2026, because third-quarter results beat estimates and management pointed to improving productivity in Illinois operations. The stock opened 8.3% above the previous close and closed at $13.42, with trading volume 4.3 times its 20-day average. Management attributed the stronger-than-expected quarter to improving productivity in core Illinois operations and growth in newer markets, according to reports by GlobeNewsWire and Seeking Alpha.

How big was the move

The session’s rise was 6.4 times a typical daily move for this stock and 8.2 percentage points better than the Consumer Cyclical sector median, which rose 4.9% on the day. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% on the day and had fallen 0.7% over the last five sessions, while the stock itself rose 21.0% over those five sessions. Market sensitivity is modest: the company has a beta of 0.84, so the stock tends to move less than the market.

The technical picture

The stock sits above its short- and long-term moving averages: it was 19.0% above its 20-day moving average, 18.7% above its 50-day moving average and 14.5% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 83 (above 70, a level often called overbought), and the stock is 4.1% below its 52-week high. Price momentum shows the stock rose 22.7% over one month and 9.2% over three months; its one-year change rose 34.3%, 22.1 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility was 32% annualized over 60 days, lower than 56% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, the company reported revenue of $1.42 billion, which grew 9.0% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $0.76, which rose 48.4% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 25.8% (a year earlier: 31.0%), while operating margin improved to 8.3% (a year earlier: 7.6%). Free-cash-flow margin was 13.6% and return on invested capital was 8.3%. The balance sheet shows net debt of 1.3 times EBITDA, and share count over one year decreased by 3.1%.

On valuation the stock traded at 17.7 times trailing earnings and 19.1 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 21.1%. Its price to trailing earnings is lower than 81% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 19.5 times earnings). PromtFinance scores rank the company highly for Value at 96 (Exceptional) and Growth at 94 (Exceptional), with Quality 70 (Positive) and Stability 87 (Strong).

Earnings and analyst expectations

Accel’s last report on November 3, 2026, showed GAAP EPS of $0.25 against $0.18 expected, 39.3% above estimates. The company also reported third-quarter revenue of $364 million, up 10% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $57 million, up 12% year-over-year; net income rose 55%, according to GlobeNewsWire and Seeking Alpha. Earnings were released at this session, so the results were the direct cause of the move. Consecutive quarters beating estimates stands at 1 and the average surprise over the last four reports was 5.1% above estimates; the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock rose 0.3%.

Analysts covering the stock number six, with a consensus rating of Buy and 67% of ratings at Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $14.33, which is 6.8% above the closing price on November 4, 2026.

What to watch

• March 2, 2027: next scheduled earnings report.
• November 3, 2026: last report with GAAP EPS of $0.25 against $0.18 expected, 39.3% above estimates.
• Third-quarter results: revenue $364 million and adjusted EBITDA $57 million, with net income up 55% year-over-year.
• Valuation: price to trailing earnings of 17.7 times and price to forward earnings of 19.1 times expected earnings.