Dutch Bros falls 21.4% after mixed third-quarter results and trimmed sales outlook

What happened

Dutch Bros fell 21.4% on November 5, 2026, because its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results beat estimates, but management narrowed its sales forecast, which disappointed investors. Dutch Bros (BROS) reported third-quarter results showing 30% revenue growth to $550 million and earnings per share of $0.25, beating the $0.24 consensus, and management warned of consumer volatility and tougher sales comparisons ahead, according to Benzinga and Seeking Alpha.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $34.57 after opening 14.1% below the previous close and traded at volume 3.1 times its 20-day average. The decline was 5.4 times a typical daily move for this stock and was 18.1 percentage points worse than the Consumer Cyclical sector median, which fell 3.4% on the day. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on the session, and over the last five sessions the S&P 500 fell 4.7% while the stock fell 21.4%.

The technical picture

The stock was 16.3% below its 20-day moving average, 17.2% below its 50-day moving average and 34.7% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average was below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 31, in the neutral range between 30 and 70. The stock was 53.3% below the 52-week high and had fallen 9.5% over one month and 34.8% over three months. Volatility was 62% annualized over 60 days, higher than 65% of its own readings over five years, underscoring unusually large price swings for the company.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $2.01 billion, which grew 30.7% from a year earlier, while diluted earnings per share were $0.78, which rose 55.6% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 24.7%, down from 26.3% a year earlier, while operating margin was 9.6%, up slightly from 9.3% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 3.8% and return on invested capital was 4.8%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 3.5 times EBITDA, and share count over one year increased by 8.5%.

Valuation measured 44.3 times trailing earnings and 36.2 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 0.9%. The price to trailing earnings was lower than 93% of its own readings over the past five years, where the five-year median was 150.1 times earnings. PromtFinance scores rank the company highly for Growth and Revisions at 96 and 95, but low on Value and Momentum at 25 and 8, reflecting a stock with strong growth metrics yet a stretched valuation and weakening price momentum.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Dutch Bros reported its last earnings on November 4, 2026: earnings per share of $0.25 against $0.24 expected, 3.8% above estimates. The company has delivered consecutive quarters beating estimates for two quarters, and the average surprise over the last four reports was 21.9% above estimates. Typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock rose 0.4%.

Following the quarter, management narrowed its sales forecast and provided commentary that guidance disappointed some investors, prompting analysts to cut their forecasts after the Q3 results, according to Benzinga. Analysts’ consensus price target was $68.13, 97.1% above the closing price, and 92% of 26 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus rating was Buy.

What to watch

• Next report: February 11, 2027.
• Consensus price target: $68.13.
• Share rating: 92% of 26 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
• Company guidance: narrowed sales forecast after the quarter, which led analysts to reduce forecasts.
• Company plan: expects to open approximately 250 system shops in 2027 as part of its expansion strategy.