ADT jumps after Thrive agrees $10-a-share buyout

What happened

ADT rose 33.2% on October 29, 2026, after Thrive Holdings agreed to acquire the company in an all-cash transaction that will pay shareholders $10.00 per share, valuing ADT equity at approximately $7.6 billion and the total enterprise at $15.3 billion. The surge came after reports said Thrive positions the purchase as advancing ADT's capabilities through technology, according to GlobeNewsWire and The Motley Fool. A separate filing showed law firm Ademi LLP launched an inquiry into whether the $10.00-per-share buyout fairly values ADT and whether any restrictions on competing offers or benefits to insiders exist.

How big was the move

The stock rose 33.2% on the day and rose 41.2% over the last five sessions. Trading volume ran 22.2 times its 20-day average, and the move measured 7.9 times a typical daily move for this stock. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on the day while the Industrials sector median rose 1.4%, leaving the stock 31.8 percentage points better than the sector median. Market value was $5.04 billion on the session. Given those gaps, the session was a large, mostly company-specific move and the company news is the likely driver.

The technical picture

The stock closed 44.5% above its 20-day moving average and 42.5% above its 50-day moving average, and it was 39.5% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. ADT finished the session 1.2% below its 52-week high and had risen 62.3% over one month and 29.2% over three months. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) read 89, above 70, a level often called overbought, and volatility was 67% annualized over 60 days, the highest reading of the past five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through June 30, 2026, ADT reported revenue of $5.16 billion, which grew 2.1% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $0.70, which rose 6.1% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 51.4% versus 49.8% a year earlier, while operating margin was 25.0% versus 25.7% a year earlier. The balance sheet showed net debt of 2.8 times EBITDA, and share count over one year decreased by 11.3%. Return on invested capital was 6.3% and free-cash-flow margin for the trailing four quarters was 36.4%.

Valuation metrics sat below much of recent history: the stock traded at 14.1 times trailing earnings, lower than 57% of its own readings over the past five years, with a five-year median of 23.5 times earnings. It traded at 10.7 times expected forward earnings and had a free-cash-flow yield of 37.3%. PromtFinance scores showed a mixed profile: Value 94 (Exceptional), Quality 90 (Exceptional) and Momentum 69 (Positive), while Growth scored 22 (Very weak) and Revisions 38 (Weak).

Earnings and analyst expectations

ADT last reported on July 30, 2026, with earnings per share of $0.23 against $0.22 expected, 3.1% above estimates. That marked eight consecutive quarters beating estimates and an average surprise of 8.0% above estimates over the last four reports. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports saw the stock rose 1.7%. The company lists its next report as November 3, 2026.

Seventeen analysts had ratings on the stock and the consensus rating was Buy. Forty-seven percent of analysts rated the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the consensus price target was $7.38, which is 25.2% below the closing price on the session.

What to watch

• November 3, 2026: ADT's next scheduled earnings report.
• The terms and regulatory review of the Thrive Holdings all-cash transaction valuing ADT equity at approximately $7.6 billion and the total enterprise at $15.3 billion.
• Ongoing investigation by Ademi LLP into whether the $10.00-per-share buyout fairly values ADT, including inquiries into benefits to company insiders and restrictions on competing offers.
• Any revision to analyst estimates or the consensus price target of $7.38 based on developments in the transaction or new financial disclosures.