Alliance Resource Partners rises 1.0% after stronger third-quarter results

What happened

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) rose 1.0% on October 26, 2026, because of stronger third-quarter results that topped expectations. The company reported earnings per share of $1.10 against $0.85 expected, 29.4% above estimates, driving the session's move. Trading volume was 1.5 times its 20-day average as the Energy sector rose 0.4% and the S&P 500 rose 0.7% that day.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $26.40, having opened 1.4% above the previous close. The session's change measured 0.9 times a typical daily move for this stock, suggesting the reaction was modest relative to typical intraday swings. Over the last five sessions the stock rose 2.7% while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 0.2%, leaving Alliance Resource Partners 0.6 percentage points better than the sector median for the period. The company's market sensitivity remains low, with a beta of 0.04, so the stock tends to move less than the market.

The technical picture

The stock traded above several moving averages, sitting 5.1% above its 20-day moving average, 2.7% above its 50-day moving average, and 3.2% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has spent 7 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average. The 14-day Relative Strength Index was 67, which is in a neutral range between 30 and 70. The stock was 10.4% below the 52-week high. One-month change rose 5.0% and three-month change rose 1.9%, while the one-year change rose 9.8% but trailed the S&P 500 by 4.2 percentage points.

Taken together, the technicals point to a measured but persistent uptrend rather than a sharp breakout. Volatility is subdued: the stock's 60-day annualized volatility is 17%, lower than 99% of its own readings over five years, which has kept price swings relatively contained even when the company reports earnings surprises.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, Alliance Resource Partners recorded revenue of $2.21 billion, a decline of 1.9% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $2.40, which rose 26.3% from a year earlier, while gross margin widened to 25.0% from 18.4% a year earlier and operating margin increased to 18.1% from 13.5% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 18.1% and return on invested capital was 12.3%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 0.8 times EBITDA, and share count over one year increased by 0.2%.

Valuation reflected a price to trailing earnings of 11.0 times trailing earnings and a price to forward earnings of 10.8 times expected earnings. Free-cash-flow yield was 11.9%. The price to trailing earnings was higher than 62% of its own readings over the past five years, with a five-year median of 9.3 times earnings. PromtFinance scores ranked the stock strongly on stability and value, with Value 92 (Exceptional) and Stability 99 (Exceptional); Growth scored 39 (Weak) and Revisions 25 (Very weak). Those scores underline a mix of attractive cash generation and conservative analyst expectations for growth.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The company released its last report on October 26, 2026, with earnings per share of $1.10 versus $0.85 expected, a result 29.4% above estimates. That quarter marked one consecutive quarter beating estimates, while the average surprise over the last four reports was 5.6% below estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports rose 1.2%. The next report is scheduled for February 1, 2027.

Analysts' consensus price target was $30.00, which is 13.6% above the closing price, and 44% of the 18 analysts with ratings placed the stock in Buy or Strong Buy categories; the consensus rating was Hold. The mix of a below-market beta, strong cash yields and a consensus price target modestly above the current price helps explain why the consensus sits at Hold rather than a stronger conviction.

The company attributed third-quarter strength to higher coal shipments, the resumption of longwall mining at the Hamilton operation, and the first full-quarter contribution from the AllDale III and IV oil-and-gas royalty acquisition, according to Seeking Alpha and MarketBeat. Those operating developments produced higher revenue, earnings and adjusted EBITDA relative to the prior period, supporting the near-term improvement in margins and cash flow recorded over the past year.

What to watch

• February 1, 2027: next scheduled earnings report.
• One quarter: whether the momentum from resumed longwall production continues to lift shipments and adjusted EBITDA.
• Share count trends: the share count over one year increased by 0.2% and may affect per-share metrics.
• Valuation relative to history: price to trailing earnings is 11.0 times trailing earnings versus a five-year median of 9.3 times earnings.