Churchill Downs rises after Q3 results and $750 million buyback

What happened

Churchill Downs (CHDN) rose 11.2% on October 29, 2026, because of third-quarter results and a $750 million share repurchase program announced with the earnings. The stock opened 5.7% above the previous close and closed at $91.16 after trading volume reached 1.9 times its 20-day average. Management said wagering services and solutions and the gaming segment performed strongly during the October 29 earnings call, and the company reported third-quarter net revenue of $696 million and adjusted EBITDA of $264 million, according to GlobeNewsWire and Seeking Alpha.

How big was the move

The session move was 4.4 times a typical daily move for this stock, a substantially larger reaction than normal for Churchill Downs. The change on the day was 8.5 percentage points better than the Consumer Cyclical sector median, which rose 2.7% on the day, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. Over the last five sessions the stock rose 7.9%. Market sensitivity was modest, with a beta of 0.61, indicating the stock tends to move less than the market.

Because earnings were released in the session, the results were the direct cause of the move. Trading activity was higher, with volume 1.9 times its 20-day average, and the stock’s two-day typical reaction after recent reports had been a fall of 0.2%. That muted historical response contrasted with this sharp one-day rise.

The technical picture

The stock traded 12.4% above its 20-day moving average and 10.0% above its 50-day moving average, while it was 3.3% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 69, inside the neutral range between 30 and 70. The stock was 23.0% below the 52-week high.

Momentum measures showed one-month change rose 20.5% and three-month change rose 8.1%, while one-year change fell 8.5% and the one year versus the S&P 500 was 20.5 percentage points behind the S&P 500. Volatility was 40% annualized over 60 days, higher than 82% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $3.00 billion, which grew 4.2% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $6.44, which rose 17.1% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 37.1%, up from 33.5% a year earlier, and operating margin was 25.6%, up from 23.8% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 17.6% and return on invested capital was 7.5%.

The balance sheet showed net debt of 3.9 times EBITDA and share count over one year decreased by 1.4%. Valuation metrics included price to trailing earnings of 14.2 times trailing earnings and price to forward earnings of 13.3 times expected earnings. Free-cash-flow yield was 9.1%. The price to trailing earnings reading was lower than 95% of its own readings over the past five years, with a five-year median of 21.0 times earnings, which points to a historically low multiple for the stock.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The last report was October 28, 2026, when the company reported earnings per share of $1.23 against $1.13 expected, 8.8% above estimates. The company said it posted third-quarter net revenue of $696 million and adjusted EBITDA of $264 million, and quarterly earnings of $1.23 per share, up from $1.09 a year earlier, according to GlobeNewsWire. The company had one consecutive quarter beating estimates, and the average surprise over the last four reports was 9.3% above estimates. The next report is scheduled for February 24, 2027.

Analysts covering the stock numbered 23, with a consensus rating of Buy and 100% of those analysts on the record with a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target was $131.67, which is 44.4% above the closing price.

PromtFinance scores rank Churchill Downs as strong on value with a score of 80 and positive on growth with a score of 76. Revisions scored 79 (Positive); quality, momentum and stability scored 50, 47 and 57 respectively, reflecting mixed readings across the profile.

What to watch

• February 24, 2027: next earnings report date
• The company said it will sell nine wholly owned regional gaming properties as part of strategic initiatives announced around its Q3 results (reported by MarketBeat)
• Board-approved $750 million share repurchase program announced October 28, 2026 (reported by GlobeNewsWire)
• Management commentary on wagering services and solutions and gaming segment performance from the October 29 earnings call (reported by GlobeNewsWire)
• Any updates to net debt of 3.9 times EBITDA or share-count changes following repurchases