News · Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR) · Technology

Cipher Mining falls 12.8% after proposed $850 million convertible-note offering

Session of October 13, 2026 · Published October 14, 2026 · 4 min read

What happened

Cipher Mining (CIFR) fell 12.8% on October 13, 2026, after Cipher Digital announced a proposed private offering of $850.0 million of convertible senior notes, triggering heavy selling. The stock closed at $11.34 on high activity, trading 3.9 times its 20-day average, and hit 52-week lows during the session. The move far exceeded the market and followed the financing news as the likely trigger, according to GlobeNewswire and Benzinga.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On October 13, 2026, CIFR closed at $11.34, down 12.8% on the day and 22.4% lower than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The stock fell 12.8% on the day and had fallen 26.8% over the last five sessions. It opened 13.5% below the previous close. The session’s price change was 1.7 times a typical daily move for this stock. The S&P 500 was unchanged on the day while the Technology sector median fell 0.3%, leaving the stock 12.5 percentage points worse than the sector median. Trading volume ran 3.9 times its 20-day average, underscoring the scale of investor reaction.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is October 13, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 7.1%, so the latest move equals 1.8 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 14.2%) are unusual.

Over the past five years the stock had 26 sessions with a decline of at least 12.8%. Twenty trading days later the median result was a gain of 8.8%, and 17 of 26 were higher. The stock’s beta is 3.31, which means the stock tends to move more than the market. Because it moved far more than both the market and its sector, this session was classified as a large, mostly company-specific move.

The technical picture

The stock traded well below key moving averages: 29.4% below its 20-day moving average, 31.2% below its 50-day moving average, and 37.9% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stood at 27, below 30 and often called oversold. The shares were 62.4% below their 52-week high and have fallen 27.5% over one month and 42.9% over three months. Volatility was elevated at 119% annualized over 60 days, higher than 54% of its own readings over five years.

Closing price over the past year. CIFR ends the period 61.1% below its 52-week high, below its 50-day average ($16.48) and below its 200-day average ($18.26).

These technicals point to sustained downside pressure: the stock is deeply below its short-, medium- and long-term averages and the oversold RSI indicates recent heavy selling, not necessarily a reversal signal by itself.

Fundamentals and valuation

Over the four quarters through June 30, 2026, revenue was $191.1 million, up 20.3% from a year earlier, though growth slowed from a quarter-earlier pace of 38.0%. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $-2.87. Gross margin was 20.0%, down from 21.4% a year earlier. Operating margin was reported as 202.9% versus 99.2% a year earlier, and free-cash-flow margin was 782.9%. Return on invested capital stood at 6.2%, and the company’s share count increased by 9.2% over one year.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $25M, 43.0% less than the same quarter a year earlier.

On a valuation metric, the free-cash-flow yield was 27.1%. PromtFinance scores rank the company weak on Value (3), Quality (11), Momentum (11) and Stability (4), with Neutral scores on Growth (63) and Revisions (53). Those scores reflect a company with attractive free-cash-flow characteristics but apparent weaknesses in profitability quality, momentum and stability.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Cipher Mining’s last reported earnings came on August 4, 2026, when earnings per share were $-0.65 against $-0.25 expected, 162.7% below estimates. The company has zero consecutive quarters beating estimates and the average surprise over the last four reports is 100.0% below estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports saw the stock rise 1.7%. The next report is scheduled for November 2, 2026.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows -$0.65, against -$0.12 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Analysts show a consensus rating of Buy across 14 analysts, with a consensus price target of $30.67, which is 170.5% above the closing price on October 13, 2026. That gap between the market price and the consensus target sits alongside recent large earnings misses, underscoring both bullish analyst expectations and near-term execution risk.

What to watch

Oct. 13, 2026: Cipher Digital announced a proposed private offering of $850.0 million aggregate principal amount of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032, with an option to increase proceeds by $150 million.
Oct. 13, 2026: Trading volume was 3.9 times its 20-day average and the stock closed at $11.34 after hitting 52-week lows.
Nov. 2, 2026: Next scheduled earnings report.
Aug. 4, 2026: Last report showed EPS of $-0.65 versus $-0.25 expected, 162.7% below estimates.
Consensus price target of $30.67, which is 170.5% above the Oct. 13 closing price.

Full CIFR analysis: scores, chart and financials →