Hagerty rises 9.9% after third-quarter results boost outlook

What happened

Hagerty (HGTY) rose 9.9% on November 4, 2026, because the company released third-quarter results that topped expectations and lifted its full-year profit outlook. The stock closed at $18.71 after it opened 1.5% above the previous close, with trading volume 3.0 times its 20-day average. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% on the day and the Financial Services sector median rose 1.7%, making Hagerty’s move 8.2 percentage points better than the sector median.

How big was the move

The session represented a large company-specific reaction. The size of the move was 5.2 times a typical daily move for this stock and trading volume was 3.0 times its 20-day average. Over the last five sessions the stock rose 21.2% while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 0.7%, so Hagerty outperformed the market. Market sensitivity remains moderate with a beta of 0.74, indicating the stock tends to move less than the market. In the past five years the stock had 7 sessions with a gain of at least 9.9%; twenty trading days later the median result was a decline of 7.0%, and 2 of 7 were higher.

The technical picture

Technically the stock sits 20.3% above its 20-day moving average and 30.3% above its 50-day moving average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend. The stock has been above its 200-day average for 66 consecutive trading days and is 0.1% below the 52-week high. Momentum indicators show a Relative Strength Index (14 days) of 87 (above 70, a level often called overbought). Over one month the stock rose 35.3% and over three months it rose 38.7%, while change over one year was a rise of 65.7%, which is 53.5 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility was 30% annualized over 60 days, lower than 69% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, Hagerty reported revenue of $1.38 billion, which grew 1.3% from a year earlier and followed quarter-to-quarter revenue growth of 7.8%. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $0.07, a decline of 76.1% from a year earlier. Gross margin improved to 73.9% from 72.5% a year earlier, while operating margin narrowed to 4.5% from 8.3%. Free-cash-flow margin was 20.3% and return on invested capital was 2.4%. The balance sheet showed net cash of $347.2 million, and share count over one year decreased by 69.0%.

Those results show mixed fundamentals. Revenue and gross margin were slightly stronger year over year, and free-cash-flow margin and net cash point to durable cash generation. But the sharp fall in diluted earnings per share and the decline in operating margin underline pressure on near-term profitability despite the upgraded outlook. Return on invested capital at 2.4% is modest given the company’s market value of $5.35 billion.

Valuation metrics reflect strong investor enthusiasm for future growth or quality attributes. The stock traded at 278.0 times trailing earnings, the highest reading of the past five years against a five-year median of 66.3 times earnings. Price to forward earnings was 658.7 times expected earnings and free-cash-flow yield was 5.2%. PromtFinance scores rank the company: Value 22 (Very weak), Growth 31 (Weak), Quality 90 (Exceptional), Momentum 97 (Exceptional), Revisions 35 (Weak), Stability 48 (Neutral). Those ratings suggest the market is paying a premium for quality and momentum while signaling weak value and growth metrics by conventional measures.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Hagerty reported on November 3, 2026, earnings per share of $0.10 against $0.01 expected, 831.1% above estimates. The company has beaten estimates in two consecutive quarters and its average surprise over the last four reports was 100.0% above estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports were rises of 4.9%. Management said the quarter showed continued growth in written premiums, improved underwriting performance, and an increased full-year profit outlook, and cited opportunities for expansion via distribution partnerships, auctions and international operations, according to Seeking Alpha and MarketBeat.

Analysts covering the stock number five, with a consensus rating of Hold and a consensus price target of $14.00, which is 25.2% below the closing price. Twenty percent of the analyst ratings are Buy or Strong Buy. The next report date is February 25, 2027. The gap between the consensus price target and the market price illustrates how much investor optimism about margins and member growth is already priced in.

What to watch

• February 25, 2027: next scheduled earnings report.
• November 3, 2026: last report showed earnings per share of $0.10 against $0.01 expected, 831.1% above estimates.
• The four quarters through September 30, 2026: revenue $1.38 billion and diluted earnings per share $0.07.
• Valuation: 278.0 times trailing earnings and price to forward earnings 658.7 times expected earnings.
• Technical positioning: Relative Strength Index (14 days) 87 and 0.1% below the 52-week high.