Intel falls 28.6% after weak fourth-quarter outlook and Q3 results

Session of October 30, 2026 · Published November 1, 2026 · 4 min read

What happened

Intel (INTC) fell 28.6% on October 30, 2026, after the company reported third-quarter results and issued a below-consensus outlook for the fourth quarter that cited soft PC demand and near-term headwinds. The stock opened 25.8% below the previous close and closed at $65.76 after heavy trading that was 4.6 times its 20-day average. News coverage noted the weak guidance focused investor attention on near-term challenges and that the drop wiped roughly $12 billion from the U.S. government’s stake, according to The Motley Fool and 24/7 Wall Street.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On October 30, 2026, INTC closed at $65.76, down 28.6% on the day and 46.0% lower than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The stock fell 28.6% on the session, a move the data describe as 4.9 times a typical daily move for this stock. Trading volume that day was 4.6 times its 20-day average, amplifying price action. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 24.4% while the S&P 500 fell 0.6% over the same period. On the day the S&P 500 fell 1.8% and the Technology sector median fell 3.7%, leaving the stock 24.9 percentage points worse than the sector median.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is October 30, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 4.9%, so the latest move equals 5.8 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 9.8%) are unusual.

Intel’s market sensitivity is captured by a beta of 2.13, which indicates the stock tends to move more than the market. The sudden drop made it one of the steepest single-day declines for the company, and it deepened an already sharp pullback that produced the worst month in October for the stock, according to The Motley Fool and 24/7 Wall Street.

The technical picture

Price momentum showed the stock trading well below several moving averages. The stock sat 31.8% below its 20-day moving average, 35.0% below its 50-day moving average and 24.3% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, even as the stock traded well below those averages.

Closing price over the past year. INTC ends the period 53.3% below its 52-week high, below its 50-day average ($101.11) and below its 200-day average ($86.86).

Shorter-term indicators suggested oversold conditions: the Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 25, below 30. The stock was 53.8% below the 52-week high. Price change metrics showed the one-month change fell 45.2% and the three-month change fell 27.7%, while the one-year change rose 59.1% and remained 49.1 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility was 92% annualized over 60 days, higher than 98% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 26, 2026, the company reported revenue of $59.89 billion, which grew 12.1% from a year earlier and showed growth of 7.5% one quarter earlier. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $-2.41. Gross margin was 40.2% (a year earlier: 35.6%) and operating margin was 3.2% (a year earlier: 4.5%). Free-cash-flow margin was 6.3% and return on invested capital was 0.0%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $16.5B, 20.9% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

Balance-sheet and capital metrics added to investor concern. The balance sheet registered net debt of 8.4 times EBITDA, and the share count over one year increased by 17.1%. On valuation metrics provided, the stock showed a price to forward earnings of 42.3 times expected earnings and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.8%.

PromtFinance scores ranked the stock weak on multiple measures within the sector: Value 21 (Very weak), Growth 19 (Very weak), Quality 27 (Very weak) and Stability 9 (Very weak). Momentum scored 49 (Neutral) while Revisions were 74 (Positive), suggesting some analysts were still raising expectations despite the near-term headwinds.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Intel reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 29, 2026, including revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% year over year, and data center and AI segment revenue that rose 78% year over year, according to Seeking Alpha and The Motley Fool. The company reported earnings per share of $0.52 against $0.41 expected, 27.9% above estimates, marking five consecutive quarters beating estimates and an average surprise over the last four reports of 100.0% above estimates.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows $0.60, against $0.90 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Typical two-day reactions after recent reports had been rose 0.2%, but the session’s reaction was far larger because the company issued a below-consensus fourth-quarter outlook tied to weaker PC shipments and memory-related supply issues. Analysts’ consensus price target was $113.79, which was 73.0% above the closing price. Eighty-five analysts covered the stock, with 38% rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy and the consensus rating Hold.

News coverage also noted a law firm announced an investigation into whether August 2026 SEC offering materials adequately disclosed customer demand ahead of the company’s below-consensus Q4 revenue outlook, according to PRNewsWire.

What to watch

January 28, 2027: next scheduled earnings report
Consensus price target $113.79 versus the closing price (73.0% above the closing price)
Balance sheet metric: net debt of 8.4 times EBITDA
Valuation: price to forward earnings 42.3 times expected earnings
Volatility: 92% annualized over 60 days, higher than 98% of its own readings over five years

Full INTC analysis: scores, chart and financials →