News · Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) · Consumer Defensive

Keurig Dr Pepper falls 5.6% after quarterly results

Session of November 3, 2026 · Published November 4, 2026 · 3 min read

What happened

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) fell 5.6% on November 3, 2026, because of third-quarter results that beat earnings estimates but showed mixed revenue and margin trends. The company reported earnings per share of $0.66 against $0.62 expected, 6.8% above estimates, and management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, according to Reuters and Seeking Alpha. The stock closed at $34.74 on a session when the S&P 500 rose 0.4%.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On November 3, 2026, KDP closed at $34.74, down 5.6% on the day and 9.4% higher than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The stock opened 4.1% below the previous close and finished the day down 5.6%, a move that was 3.0 times a typical daily move for this stock. Trading volume was 2.2 times its 20-day average, indicating heavier-than-normal activity. The drop left the shares 3.9 percentage points worse than the Consumer Defensive sector median, which fell 1.7% on the day, while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 2.0%.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is November 3, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 1.6%, so the latest move equals 3.5 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 3.2%) are unusual.

The technical picture

The stock traded 1.9% above its 20-day moving average and 6.6% above its 50-day moving average, and it was 15.5% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has spent 132 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 56, in a neutral range, and the shares were 6.0% below the 52-week high. Over one month the stock rose 12.5% and over three months it rose 13.0%; over one year it rose 27.9%, which is 17.3 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility is elevated, with 30% annualized over 60 days, a reading higher than 92% of its own readings over five years.

Closing price over the past year. KDP ends the period 5.6% below its 52-week high, above its 50-day average ($32.58) and above its 200-day average ($30.08).

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, the company reported revenue of $23.13 billion, which grew 43.0% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $1.09 for that period, which fell 5.7% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 48.0% (a year earlier: 54.8%) and operating margin was 16.1% (a year earlier: 21.5%), showing compression in profitability despite strong top-line growth. Free-cash-flow margin was 10.1% and return on invested capital was 3.4%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 5.7 times EBITDA, and share count over one year increased by 0.2%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $7.3B, 70.6% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

On valuation, the stock traded at 31.8 times trailing earnings, which is higher than 81% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 25.3 times earnings). Price to forward earnings was 15.2 times expected earnings and free-cash-flow yield was 4.8%. Market value was $48.77 billion at the close.

Those figures paint a contrast: rapid revenue growth, helped by M&A and segment strength, sits alongside falling margins and heavy leverage. Investors must weigh growth that lifted revenue by 43.0% against gross margin that narrowed to 48.0% from 54.8% a year earlier, and net debt of 5.7 times EBITDA.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Keurig Dr Pepper reported last on November 3, 2026, posting earnings per share of $0.66 against $0.62 expected, 6.8% above estimates. That marked the eighth consecutive quarter beating estimates, with an average surprise over the last four reports of 4.9% above estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports were rose 1.6%. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance when announcing the results. The next report is scheduled for February 23, 2027.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows $0.59, against $0.49 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Analysts place a consensus price target of $38.86, which is 11.9% above the closing price, and 62% of analysts with a rating rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy. There were 29 analysts covering the stock. Market-facing scores show strong growth and momentum—Growth scored 93 and Momentum 86—while Value scored 24 and Quality 31, indicating a premium valuation against mixed profitability metrics.

What to watch

February 23, 2027: next scheduled earnings report.
The four quarters through September 30, 2026: monitor revenue of $23.13 billion and gross margin of 48.0% for any guidance updates.
Balance sheet leverage: net debt of 5.7 times EBITDA and free-cash-flow margin of 10.1%.
Valuation and consensus: price to trailing earnings of 31.8 times and consensus price target of $38.86.
Trading activity and volatility: trading volume 2.2 times its 20-day average and 30% annualized volatility over 60 days.

Full KDP analysis: scores, chart and financials →