Microsoft rises 1.1% after unveiling Maia 300 AI chip and confirming strong Azure guidance

What happened

Microsoft (MSFT) rose 1.1% on October 12, 2026, after unveiling the Maia 300 AI chip and guiding for Azure revenue growth of 44% to 45% in constant currency for the quarter ended Sept. 30. CNBC and Yahoo Finance reported the Maia 300 rollout. They said Microsoft would scale production to multiple gigawatts, with deployments starting in 2027, as part of a push to run more inference on its own silicon and reduce reliance on external GPU suppliers. The Motley Fool reported the company indicated capital spending of over $50 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30. Executives, including Chief Executive Satya Nadella and President Brad Smith, reiterated calls for stronger AI regulation and safety measures, according to Zacks Investment Research and PYMNTS. These developments were the main items of company news around the day and should not be presented as definitive causes of the price change.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $541.15, up 1.1% on the day, and it rose 3.0% over the last five sessions. It opened 0.5% above the previous close and traded at a volume 0.8 times its 20-day average. The move was 0.5 times a typical daily move for this stock, which has a beta of 1.13. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% on the day while the Technology sector median fell 1.4%, leaving the stock’s performance 2.5 percentage points better than the sector median.

The technical picture

The stock sat 5.7% above its 20-day moving average and 7.8% above its 50-day moving average, and it was 24.6% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average was above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock had spent 52 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 70 (a neutral range). The stock was 2.3% below the 52-week high. Price momentum showed change over one month rose 9.2% and change over three months rose 40.6%, while change over one year rose 3.6%. One year versus the S&P 500 was 12.3 percentage points behind the S&P 500. Volatility was 38% annualized over 60 days, higher than 91% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through June 30, 2026, revenue was $331.84 billion, which grew 17.8% from a year earlier and was roughly in line with the prior quarter’s growth of 17.9%. Diluted earnings per share were $17.95, which rose 31.6% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 67.9% (a year earlier: 68.8%), operating margin was 46.8% (a year earlier: 45.6%), and free-cash-flow margin was 20.2%. Return on invested capital was 20.6%, and the balance sheet showed net debt of 0.5 times EBITDA. Share count over one year decreased by 0.1%.

Valuation stood at 30.1 times trailing earnings and 27.4 times expected earnings on a price to forward earnings basis. Price to trailing earnings was lower than 62% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 32.0 times earnings). Free-cash-flow yield was 1.7%.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Microsoft’s next report was due October 28, 2026. The company’s last report, on July 29, 2026, showed earnings per share of $4.74 against $4.24 expected, 11.8% above estimates. The company had posted 14 consecutive quarters beating estimates, with an average surprise over the last four reports of 8.9% above estimates. The typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 0.3%.

Analysts’ consensus price target was $571.76, 5.7% above the closing price; 82 analysts had ratings and 82% of those rated the stock Buy. PromtFinance scores ranked Microsoft 56 (Neutral) on Value, 57 (Neutral) on Growth, 89 (Strong) on Quality, 75 (Positive) on Momentum, 76 (Positive) on Revisions, and 88 (Strong) on Stability.

What to watch

• October 28, 2026: Microsoft’s next earnings report date
• Azure revenue growth guided at 44% to 45% in constant currency for the quarter ended Sept. 30
• Capital spending indicated at over $50 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30
• CNBC and Yahoo Finance coverage of the Maia 300 rollout and planned production scaling to multiple gigawatts starting in 2027
• The company’s public calls for stronger AI regulation and safety measures reported by Zacks Investment Research and PYMNTS