News · MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) · Industrials

MSC Industrial falls 15.4% after quarterly results

Session of October 22, 2026 · Published October 23, 2026 · 3 min read

What happened

MSC Industrial (MSM) fell 15.4% on October 22, 2026, because of its quarterly results and related management commentary. The stock opened 5.1% below the previous close and finished the session at $112.43 on trading volume that was 3.0 times its 20-day average. News outlets including Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research reported the company provided details and management commentary on its October 22, 2026, earnings call.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On October 22, 2026, MSM closed at $112.43, down 15.4% on the day and 6.7% lower than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The decline was 5.9 times a typical daily move for this stock, a large readjustment relative to its recent behavior. That day the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Industrials sector median fell 0.6%, making the stock’s decline 14.7 percentage points worse than the sector median. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 14.0% while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 1.0%, and the stock’s beta of 0.78 indicates it typically moves less than the broader market.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is October 22, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 1.7%, so the latest move equals 9.1 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 3.4%) are unusual.

The technical picture

The stock closed 12.1% below its 20-day moving average and 8.9% below its 50-day moving average, while remaining 3.8% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has spent 148 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 31, inside a neutral range, and the shares are 16.1% below the 52-week high.

Closing price over the past year. MSM ends the period 15.4% below its 52-week high, below its 50-day average ($123.45) and above its 200-day average ($108.32).

Over one month the stock fell 9.4% and over three months it fell 10.5%, yet over one year it rose 27.7%, which is 13.9 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility is 42% annualized over 60 days, the highest reading of the past five years, underscoring larger price swings despite the company’s long run above the 200-day average.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through August 29, 2026, revenue was $4.01 billion, which grew 6.4% from a year earlier and continued a revenue growth trend following growth of 4.4% one quarter earlier. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $3.98, a rise of 11.8% from a year earlier, while gross margin was 40.9% compared with 40.8% a year earlier. Operating margin was 8.0% versus 8.3% a year earlier, return on invested capital was 12.3%, and the balance sheet shows net debt of 1.1 times EBITDA. Share count over one year increased by 0.2%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $1.1B, 10.3% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

The stock trades at 28.2 times trailing earnings and 24.2 times expected earnings. Its price-to-earnings reading is higher than 90% of its own readings over the past five years, with a five-year median of 17.4 times earnings, which signals that the market is paying a premium relative to MSC Industrial’s recent history. Market value stands at $7.28 billion.

PromtFinance scores rank the company within the Industrials sector as follows: Value 38 (Weak), Growth 37 (Weak), Quality 93 (Exceptional), Momentum 81 (Strong), Revisions 34 (Weak), and Stability 79 (Positive). Those metrics point to strong quality and momentum despite weaker value and revision trends.

Earnings and analyst expectations

On October 22, 2026, MSC Industrial reported earnings per share of $1.45 against $1.41 expected, 2.8% above estimates, marking two consecutive quarters beating estimates. The same report showed quarterly EPS of $1.45 compared with $1.09 a year earlier, and the company provided additional details on its earnings call that day. Average surprise over the last four reports was 4.2% above estimates, and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 1.2%.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows $0.85, against $1.01 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Analysts covering the stock number 29, with a consensus rating of Hold and 34% of ratings at Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $147.40, which is 31.1% above the closing price. The company’s next report is scheduled for January 6, 2027.

What to watch

October 22, 2026: quarterly EPS of $1.45, 2.8% above estimates, with management commentary on the earnings call
January 6, 2027: next scheduled earnings report
Trading volume at 3.0 times its 20-day average on October 22, 2026
Price to trailing earnings of 28.2 times and consensus price target of $147.40

Full MSM analysis: scores, chart and financials →