News · National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) · Financial Services

National Bank falls 3.8% after quarterly results miss expectations

Session of October 28, 2026 · Published October 29, 2026 · 4 min read

What happened

National Bank (NBHC) fell 3.8% on October 28, 2026, after third-quarter results missed revenue and earnings expectations and management said elevated charge-offs were related to two commercial credit losses in its specialty banking unit. The stock closed at $37.48 after it opened 1.0% below the previous close. Trading volume was 1.8 times its 20-day average as the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Financial Services sector median was unchanged.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On October 28, 2026, NBHC closed at $37.48, down 3.8% on the day and 8.9% lower than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The session reflected a company-specific reaction: the drop was 3.5 times a typical daily move for the stock and was 3.8 percentage points worse than the sector median on the day. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 1.4%, while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 0.2%. The stock has a beta of 0.75, which means the stock tends to move less than the market and underscores that the decline was driven by company news rather than broad market action.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is October 28, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 1.4%, so the latest move equals 2.8 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 2.8%) are unusual.

The technical picture

The stock was 1.7% below its 20-day moving average, 6.0% below its 50-day moving average and 9.4% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 38, in a neutral range between 30 and 70. The stock was 20.7% below the 52-week high, had fallen 4.5% over one month and fell 12.0% over three months, while it rose 0.8% over one year, leaving it 11.9 percentage points behind the S&P 500. Volatility was 17% annualized over 60 days, lower than 99% of its own readings over five years.

Closing price over the past year. NBHC ends the period 20.4% below its 52-week high, below its 50-day average ($39.88) and below its 200-day average ($41.37).

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, the company reported revenue of $626.3 million, which grew 6.3% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $1.45, which fell 54.1% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 69.7% (a year earlier: 68.1%) while operating margin was 11.9% (a year earlier: 25.3%). Return on invested capital was 0.8% and the balance sheet showed net cash of $15.4 million. Share count over one year increased by 17.3%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $181M, 19.1% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

The stock traded at 25.8 times trailing earnings, a valuation higher than 95% of its own readings over the past five years; the five-year median is 13.6 times earnings. Price to forward earnings was 13.6 times expected earnings. PromtFinance scores paint a mixed picture. Value scored 36 (Weak) and Quality scored 35 (Weak). Growth was 52 (Neutral) and Stability 53 (Neutral). Momentum and Revisions were weak at 21 (Very weak) and 14 (Very weak), respectively.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The company reported on October 27, 2026, earnings per share of $0.06 against $0.79 expected, 92.4% below estimates, and missed revenue expectations, according to Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research. Management said third-quarter results were affected by elevated charge-offs related to two commercial credit losses in its specialty banking unit, and it said the company remains targeting 10% full-year loan growth in 2026, according to those reports. The stock has recorded 0 consecutive quarters beating estimates and the average surprise over the last four reports was 29.1% below estimates; the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 0.1%.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows -$0.20, against $0.92 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Analysts covering the stock number 10 and the consensus rating is Hold, with 30% assigning a rating of Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $44.00, which is 17.4% above the closing price on October 28, 2026. The next scheduled report is January 26, 2027.

Because earnings were released at this session, the results were the direct cause of the move: the significant EPS miss and management’s comments about elevated charge-offs related to two commercial credit losses explain the share decline.

Similar sessions in the past five years show that the stock had 32 sessions with a decline of at least 3.8%. Twenty trading days later the median result was a decline of 0.4%, and 14 of 32 were higher, indicating a mixed short-term historical pattern following comparable drops.

What to watch

January 26, 2027: next scheduled earnings report
The company’s progress toward 10% full-year loan growth in 2026
Any updates on charge-offs or credit performance tied to the two commercial credit losses
Changes in consensus estimates or the number of analysts with a rating (current: 10 analysts; consensus rating: Hold)

Full NBHC analysis: scores, chart and financials →