First Busey falls after quarterly earnings miss and weaker loan metrics

What happened

First Busey (BUSE) fell 3.1% on October 28, 2026, because its third-quarter earnings missed expectations and non-performing loans rose. The bank reported earnings per share of $0.63 against $0.67 expected, 6.1% below estimates, according to GlobeNewsWire and Seeking Alpha.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $29.24 after opening 2.3% below the previous close, on a day when the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Financial Services sector median was unchanged. Trading volume ran at 2.5 times its 20-day average, and the session’s move equaled 3.2 times a typical daily move for this stock. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 1.8% while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 0.2%.

Investors have seen similar-sized down days before: in the past five years the stock registered 44 sessions with a decline of at least 3.1%. Twenty trading days later the median result was a gain of 1.9%, and 24 of those 44 sessions were higher. The stock’s beta is 0.77, indicating it tends to move less than the market.

The technical picture

Technically, the stock sat 1.0% below its 20-day moving average and 2.2% below its 50-day moving average, while remaining 4.9% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has been above the 200-day average for 234 consecutive trading days. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 44, in a neutral range between 30 and 70, and the stock traded 7.8% below its 52-week high.

Short-term volatility was modest: annualized volatility over 60 days was 16%, a reading lower than 99% of its own readings over five years. Price action over the past month fell 0.5% and over three months fell 6.5%, though the one-year change remained positive, up 26.0%, outpacing the S&P 500 by 13.4 percentage points over the same period.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, First Busey reported revenue of $924.5 million, a decline of 0.8% from a year earlier, while diluted earnings per share were $2.44, a rise of 61.6% from a year earlier. Gross margin widened to 65.6% from 63.0% a year earlier, and operating margin increased to 16.2% from 15.7%.

Free-cash-flow margin was 16.6% and return on invested capital was 2.3%. The balance sheet showed net cash of $426.1 million, while share count over one year increased by 37.8%. The stock trades at 12.0 times trailing earnings and 11.5 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 6.1%. Versus its own history, the price to trailing earnings is higher than 52% of its readings over the past five years; the five-year median is 11.9 times earnings.

PromtFinance scores ranked the company positively on value at 74 and on momentum at 66, while quality scored 40 and revisions scored 12, indicating very weak revision trends.

Earnings and analyst expectations

First Busey reported on October 27, 2026, posting EPS of $0.63 versus a Zacks consensus of $0.67. Net interest margin for the quarter was 3.58%. Asset-quality metrics showed non-performing assets at 0.45% while non-performing loans rose to 0.64%, as reported by GlobeNewsWire and Seeking Alpha.

The company had no consecutive quarters beating estimates in the recent sequence; its average surprise over the last four reports was 3.2% above estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports saw the stock rise 0.7%.

Analysts’ consensus price target is $31.50, 7.7% above the closing price, based on 11 analysts. Twenty-seven percent of those ratings were Buy or Strong Buy and the consensus rating is Hold. The next report is scheduled for January 26, 2027.

What to watch

• October 27, 2026: earnings per share of $0.63 against $0.67 expected, 6.1% below estimates (reported by GlobeNewsWire and Seeking Alpha)
• Net interest margin of 3.58% reported for the quarter ended September 2026
• Non-performing assets at 0.45% and non-performing loans at 0.64% in the same report
• Next earnings report scheduled for January 26, 2027
• Consensus price target $31.50, 7.7% above the closing price