NOV falls 6.2% after third-quarter results disappoint expectations

What happened

NOV fell 6.2% on October 28, 2026, because third-quarter results matched per-share expectations but highlighted constrained profitability and softer bookings. The company reported revenue of $2.23 billion and diluted earnings per share of $0.25, matching the $0.25 expected figure, while adjusted EBITDA totaled $281 million, or 12.6% of sales. Trading was brisk: the stock opened 4.7% below the previous close and closed at $19.27 on volume equal to 2.9 times its 20-day average.

How big was the move

The decline was 3.0 times a typical daily move for this stock and was 6.7 percentage points worse than the Energy sector median, which rose 0.5% on the day. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% on October 28, 2026, while NOV was more heavily sold despite a modestly positive market. Volume signaled significant investor attention; in the past five years the stock had 16 sessions with a decline of at least 6.2%, and twenty trading days later the median result was a decline of 0.9%, with 7 of 16 higher.

The technical picture

The stock traded 0.8% above its 20-day moving average but remained 3.5% below its 50-day moving average and 1.9% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index was 48, in a neutral range. NOV was 12.1% below the 52-week high, had risen 1.5% over the past month and fallen 0.2% over three months, and was up 38.1% over one year, which is 25.5 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility was 33% annualized over 60 days, lower than 80% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, NOV reported revenue of $8.69 billion, a decline of 1.0% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $0.40, which fell 60.0% year over year. Gross margin was 20.7%, slightly above a year earlier at 20.5%, while operating margin was 6.3%, down from 6.9% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin stood at 3.1% and return on invested capital was 1.7%; the balance sheet showed net debt of 1.5 times EBITDA. The company reduced share count by 3.0% over the past year.

NOV traded at 48.2 times trailing earnings and 21.0 times forward earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 3.8%. Its price-to-trailing-earnings was higher than 71% of its own readings over the past five years, where the five-year median was 15.6 times earnings. PromtFinance scores ranked NOV Neutral on Value at 49, Very weak on Growth at 18, Weak on Quality at 39, Neutral on Momentum at 52, Very weak on Revisions at 17, and Neutral on Stability at 51.

Earnings and analyst expectations

NOV reported on October 27, 2026, with diluted EPS of $0.25 against $0.25 expected, 1.8% below estimates according to the last report summary, and adjusted EBITDA of $281 million. Revenue for the quarter was $2.23 billion, up 4% sequentially and 2% year over year, while net income for the quarter was $90 million, or $0.25 per diluted share. Bookings totaled $577 million, giving a book-to-bill of 91%.

The company had no recent consecutive quarterly beats, with the average surprise over the last four reports 0.5% below estimates, and its typical two-day reaction after recent reports was a rise of 0.9%. Analysts covering the stock numbered 58, the consensus rating was Hold, and 43% of analysts rated the stock Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus price target was $21.80, which was 13.1% above the closing price of $19.27.

What to watch

• February 3, 2027: next scheduled earnings report date.
• Bookings of $577 million in the quarter, giving a book-to-bill of 91% for the reported period.
• Net debt of 1.5 times EBITDA on the balance sheet as of the four quarters through September 30, 2026.
• Price to trailing earnings at 48.2 times and price to forward earnings at 21.0 times.
• Trading volume on the day was 2.9 times its 20-day average.