Syndax falls 15.7% after axatilimab IPF trial fails

What happened

Syndax fell 15.7% on October 13, 2026, after it said the Phase 2 MAXPIRe trial of axatilimab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis failed to meet its primary endpoint. The company said it will halt development of axatilimab for IPF and reported no new safety signals and a safety profile similar to placebo, according to GlobeNewsWire and Benzinga. Trading volume was 3.5 times its 20-day average, and the move followed sharp pre-market declines and an intra-day share drop of more than 11% noted in the reports.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $13.95 and fell 15.7% on the session. That decline was 4.8 times a typical daily move for this stock and was 13.2 percentage points worse than the healthcare sector median, which fell 2.5% on the day. The S&P 500 was unchanged on the session and fell 0.2% over five sessions, reinforcing that the sell-off was largely company-specific rather than market driven. Syndax opened 11.7% below the previous close, and its five-session performance fell 19.7%.

The company’s market value was $1.51 billion. Its beta is 1.06, indicating the stock tends to move about as much as the market, but the session’s move far outpaced both the index and the sector.

The technical picture

Technically, the stock sat well below recent moving averages: 20.3% below its 20-day moving average, 26.0% below its 50-day moving average and 32.7% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) stood at 22, which is below 30 and often called oversold. Syndax was 45.5% below the 52-week high, its one-month change fell 24.0% and its three-month change fell 40.7%.

Volatility was 52% annualized over 60 days, a reading higher than 54% of its own readings over five years, suggesting larger-than-normal price swings for holders.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through June 30, 2026, revenue was $252.0 million, which grew 222.3% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $-2.52 and gross margin was 97.5%, compared with 97.2% a year earlier. Operating margin was 77.1% versus 433.7% a year earlier and free-cash-flow margin was 87.6%. Free-cash-flow yield was 14.7% and return on invested capital was 32.1%. Share count over one year increased by 3.1%.

Those figures present a mixed picture. Revenue showed rapid expansion year over year, while margins and operating profitability reflect swings that could stem from accounting and one-time items, which depressed operating margin versus the prior year. The high gross margin and strong free-cash-flow metrics sit against a much lower operating margin, a contrast investors may weigh when assessing durability of profitability.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Syndax’s last report was August 4, 2026, when earnings per share were $-0.55 against $-0.45 expected, 22.9% below estimates. The company has zero consecutive quarters beating estimates and its average surprise over the last four reports was 8.1% below estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports rose 1.1%. The next report is scheduled for November 2, 2026.

Analysts’ consensus price target was $36.67, 162.9% above the closing price, based on 22 analysts. Ninety-one percent of those with a rating showed Buy or an equivalent positive recommendation and the consensus rating was Buy. PromtFinance scores ranked the stock weak on Value at 36, Growth at 43 and Quality at 44; Momentum was very weak at 25 while Revisions and Stability were neutral at 49 and 61 respectively. Those ratings indicate mixed fundamentals and soft momentum, even as analysts’ models project substantially higher share prices.

What to watch

• November 2, 2026: next earnings report date.
• Consensus price target $36.67, 162.9% above the closing price.
• Trading volume 3.5 times its 20-day average on October 13, 2026.
• Relative Strength Index (14 days) 22 (below 30, a level often called oversold).