News · TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) · Healthcare

TransMedics jumps after quarterly earnings beat and raised revenue guidance

Session of November 6, 2026 · Published November 7, 2026 · 4 min read

What happened

TransMedics (TMDX) rose 27.9% on November 6, 2026, after the company reported third-quarter results that beat estimates, posted record revenue and raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance. The company said strength in its liver and heart businesses partly compensated for lower U.S. deceased donor volume. The report showed earnings per share of $0.51 against $0.30 expected, and record third-quarter revenue and transplant case volume, according to Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On November 6, 2026, TMDX closed at $88.24, up 27.9% on the day and 6.7% higher than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The stock rose 27.9% on the day and rose 33.7% over the last five sessions. It opened 14.7% above the previous close, and trading volume was 4.0 times its 20-day average. The one-day move was 6.4 times a typical daily move for this stock. By comparison, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% on the day while the healthcare sector median rose 1.9%, making the stock 26.0 percentage points better than the sector median. The stock’s market value is $2.29 billion, and it has a beta of 0.72, meaning the stock tends to move less than the market.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is November 6, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 3.6%, so the latest move equals 7.7 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 7.2%) are unusual.

The technical picture

Technically, the stock sits above short-term averages but below its longer-term level. The stock is 22.0% above its 20-day moving average and 10.8% above its 50-day moving average, while it is 4.9% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 67, inside a neutral range between 30 and 70. The stock is 43.4% below the 52-week high, underscoring how this rally still leaves it well short of its peak.

Closing price over the past year. TMDX ends the period 41.3% below its 52-week high, above its 50-day average ($79.62) and below its 200-day average ($92.80).

Over one month the stock rose 11.7%, over three months it fell 0.2%, and over one year it fell 29.1%. Versus the S&P 500 over one year, the stock lagged by 37.6 percentage points. Volatility is elevated: 69% annualized over 60 days, a reading higher than 66% of its own readings over five years. That combination of elevated short-term momentum and a weak longer-term trend can produce sharp reactions to new news.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, TransMedics reported revenue of $727.6 million, which grew 28.5% from a year earlier and followed revenue growth of 25.8% one quarter earlier. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $3.66, with earnings per share growth from a year earlier of rose 48.2%. Gross margin was 58.6%, down from 60.3% a year earlier, and operating margin was 11.9% versus 16.9% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 6.1% and return on invested capital was 5.9%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $203M, 41.1% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

The balance sheet shows net debt of 2.7 times EBITDA and share count over one year increased by 0.2%. Those figures point to modest leverage and limited dilution over the period, while the margin profile highlights some pressure compared with a year earlier. Investors will likely watch whether operating margin and free-cash-flow margin expand as revenue growth continues.

On valuation, the stock traded at 24.1 times trailing earnings and 60.2 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 2.0%. The price to trailing earnings is lower than 70% of its own readings over the past five years; the five-year median is 55.1 times earnings. PromtFinance scores rank the company 78 for Value (Positive), 81 for Growth (Strong), 46 for Quality (Neutral), 37 for Momentum (Weak), 31 for Revisions (Weak) and 48 for Stability (Neutral).

Earnings and analyst expectations

The last report, issued November 5, 2026, showed earnings per share of $0.51 against $0.30 expected, 71.4% above estimates. The company said it had record third-quarter revenue and transplant case volume, and it reiterated that strength in liver and heart businesses partly compensated for lower U.S. deceased donor volume. It also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows $0.46, against $0.66 in the same quarter a year earlier.

This was the first consecutive quarter beating estimates in the current sequence, with consecutive quarters beating estimates equal to 1 and the average surprise over the last four reports 11.9% above estimates. Historically, the typical two-day reaction after recent reports has been to fall 0.6%, suggesting that the market has sometimes pared gains after initial moves; this quarter’s outsized one-day rise contrasts with that tendency.

Analysts' consensus price target is $99.63, which is 12.9% above the closing price. Thirteen analysts had a rating on the stock, with 69% of those ratings Buy or Strong Buy and a consensus rating of Buy. The next scheduled report is February 23, 2027.

What to watch

February 23, 2027: Next report date.
Consensus price target $99.63, 12.9% above the closing price.
Last report November 5, 2026: earnings per share $0.51 versus $0.30 expected, 71.4% above estimates.
Trading volume on November 6, 2026, was 4.0 times its 20-day average.
Net debt 2.7 times EBITDA and free-cash-flow yield 2.0%.

Full TMDX analysis: scores, chart and financials →