Upstart rises after publishing monthly originations report and updated credit-stress gauge

What happened

Upstart (UPST) rose 6.8% on October 5, 2026, after the company published its September originations report and updated its Upstart Macro Index, which showed the firm's credit-stress gauge at 1.49. The intraday gain followed the release of monthly origination volume and the updated UMI, according to Business Wire and 24/7 Wall Street. Trading volume was 1.4 times its 20-day average, and the stock moved far more than the market and its sector on the day.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $24.35, having opened 0.6% above the previous close and rising 6.8% on the session. Over the last five sessions it rose 5.7%, while the S&P 500 on the day rose 0.7% and the Financial Services sector median on the day fell 0.1%. Compared with its sector the move was 6.9 percentage points better than the sector median. The day’s change equalled 2.2 times a typical daily move for this stock, consistent with a large, mostly company-specific session. The stock has a beta of 3.58, so it tends to move more than the market.

In the past five years the stock had 130 sessions with a gain of at least 6.8%. Twenty trading days later the median result was a decline of 6.2%, and 55 of 130 were higher. That history suggests sharp one-day gains have often given ground in the near term for this stock.

The technical picture

Technically, the stock remained below its short- and long-term averages. The stock was 1.3% below its 20-day moving average, 11.2% below its 50-day moving average and 24.2% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 43, in a neutral range between 30 and 70.

Upstart was 55.9% below its 52-week high and set a new 52-week low on the day, trading at $24.35 within a 52-week range of $22.56 to $55. Over one month the stock fell 14.6%, over three months it fell 26.3% and over one year it fell 54.0%, which was 69.7 percentage points behind the S&P 500. Volatility was 49% annualized over 60 days, lower than 99% of its own readings over five years, indicating that while the stock typically moves sharply, recent realized volatility is relatively subdued versus its recent history.

Those technicals point to a stock under sustained pressure despite the intraday bounce. The combination of being below major moving averages, a newly set 52-week low and steep declines over multiple horizons suggests the longer-term trend has not reversed.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through June 30, 2026, Upstart reported revenue of $1.29 billion, which grew 45.3% from a year earlier; revenue growth one quarter earlier was growth of 54.7%. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $0.51. Gross margin was 95.4%, unchanged from a year earlier, and operating margin was 4.8% compared with 0.7% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin was 23.1% and return on invested capital was 2.0%.

The balance sheet showed net debt of 18.0 times EBITDA, and share count over one year increased by 6.7%. Valuation multiples included 47.6 times trailing earnings and 35.9 times expected earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 13.6%. The price to trailing earnings was lower than 78% of its own readings over the past five years, where the five-year median was 86.9 times earnings.

Those figures paint a mixed picture. Revenue growth has been strong, but profitability and capital returns are modest, with return on invested capital of 2.0% and operating margin that remains low in absolute terms despite year-over-year improvement. The high gross margin and strong free-cash-flow yield contrast with heavy leverage as expressed by net debt of 18.0 times EBITDA and a rising share count.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Upstart last reported on August 4, 2026, when earnings per share were $0.16 against $0.18 expected, 10.2% below estimates. The firm has recorded zero consecutive quarters beating estimates and an average surprise over the last four reports of 26.5% below estimates. The typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 0.7%. The next report is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Analysts show a consensus rating of Buy, with 45% of the 22 analysts rating the stock Buy and a consensus price target of $39.25, which was 61.2% above the closing price. That gap between the consensus target and the market price underscores divergence between analyst expectations and current investor sentiment.

PromtFinance scores within the sector are weak across most categories: Value 36, Growth 33, Quality 21, Momentum 2, Revisions 35 and Stability 3. These rankings reflect the tension between strong recent revenue growth and weak momentum, profitability and stability metrics.

What to watch

• October 5, 2026: Upstart published its September 2026 originations report and updated its Upstart Macro Index; the UMI showed the firm's credit-stress gauge at 1.49 (Business Wire and 24/7 Wall Street).
• November 3, 2026: Next scheduled earnings report.
• August 4, 2026: Last report showed earnings per share of $0.16 against $0.18 expected, 10.2% below estimates.
• The stock traded at a 52-week low of $24.35 on October 5, 2026, within a 52-week range of $22.56 to $55.