Stocks · Industrials · Waste Management
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. CWST
$83.42 +0.79% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $5.18B
Low risk
Next earnings report: Oct 29, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The shares trade at 895.1× trailing earnings, higher than 95% of the company's own readings over the past five years.
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $0.09, down 48.7% year over year.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 7 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +43.6%).
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Industrials sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 32%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 18%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Top 44%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 14%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 20%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 32%
- Gross marginBottom 43%
- Operating marginBottom 39%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 7%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 20%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 27%
- Interest coverBottom 34%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 33%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 39%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 47%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 32%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Bottom 6%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 46%
- 6-month returnBottom 42%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 35%
- Distance from 52-week highTop 43%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 16%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 13%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 17%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 50%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 44%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 19%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 28%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Top 2%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 27%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 14.9% | 13.6% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -47.6% | -48.7% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 17.8% | 25.4% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 5.6% | 4.4% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 5.3% | 5.4% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 13.6% | 14.9% | ↓ | Top 32% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -48.7% | -47.6% | ↓ | Bottom 18% |
| Gross margin | 25.4% | 17.8% | ↑ | Bottom 43% |
| Operating margin | 4.4% | 5.6% | ↓ | Bottom 39% |
| Net margin | 0.3% | 0.6% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 5.4% | 5.3% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 1.7% | — | Bottom 32% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 19.2% | — | Top 14% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -9.7%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.9%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +2.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 3.43×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 1.4×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.00%
- Shareholder yield
- 0.00%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +6.3%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 7
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 7 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +43.6%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.3%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $113.00
- Target vs current price
- +35.5%
- Analysts with a rating
- 19
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 58%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | +12.2% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +3.7% | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +100.0% | +1.5% | +8.3% | +7.8% | +14.3% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | +36.4% | -1.0% | -12.9% | -16.1% | -15.7% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | +25.9% | -1.6% | +6.9% | +14.9% | +25.7% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | +16.1% | +0.3% | -8.1% | -7.6% | -16.2% |
| May 1, 2025 | +72.7% | -0.1% | +2.4% | -1.8% | -7.7% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | +156.2% | -0.7% | +7.8% | -2.2% | +10.2% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | -3.6% | -1.1% | -0.6% | +8.9% | +4.0% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.40 | $0.36 | +12.2% | $543.7M |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $0.20 | $0.10 | +100.0% | $457.3M |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.30 | $0.22 | +36.4% | $469.1M |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.42 | $0.33 | +25.9% | $485.4M |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.36 | $0.31 | +16.1% | $465.3M |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.19 | $0.11 | +72.7% | $417.1M |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $0.41 | $0.16 | +156.2% | $427.5M |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.27 | $0.28 | -3.6% | $411.6M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 895.1× | 205.3× | 95th | Bottom 33% |
| P/E (forward) | 62.4× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.0× | — | — | Top 47% |
| EV / Sales | 3.38× | — | — | Bottom 32% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.04% | — | — | Bottom 39% |
| Earnings yield | 0.11% | — | — | Bottom 33% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 37.0× – 364.8× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -7.9%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -48.7%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +196.4%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -3.9%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -1.1%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -6.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -8.5%
- RSI (14)
- 41.6
- Relative volume
- 1.53×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 28.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 68th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.23
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.12
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -22.3%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -37.7%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2025 | Mar 27, 2026 | -37.7% | 224 days | Not yet recovered |
| Mar 10, 2022 | Jun 16, 2022 | -28.1% | 68 days | 224 days (May 9, 2023) |
| May 15, 2023 | Oct 26, 2023 | -23.2% | 114 days | 96 days (Mar 15, 2024) |
| Nov 17, 2021 | Feb 23, 2022 | -21.6% | 66 days | 11 days (Mar 10, 2022) |
| Dec 18, 2020 | Jan 14, 2021 | -13.8% | 17 days | 37 days (Mar 10, 2021) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $5.18B
- P/E (TTM)
- 895.1
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.09
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.96B
- 52-week range
- $74.05 – $107.96
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $889.2M | $1.09B | $1.26B | $1.56B | $1.84B |
| Gross profit | $203.2M | $235.6M | $261.8M | $295.0M | $313.4M |
| Operating income | $84.4M | $102.2M | $106.0M | $104.3M | $89.2M |
| Net income | $41.1M | $53.1M | $25.4M | $13.5M | $7.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.80 | $1.03 | $0.46 | $0.23 | $0.12 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $411.6M | $427.5M | $417.1M | $465.3M | $485.4M | $469.1M | $457.3M | $543.7M |
| Net income | $5.8M | $4.9M | -$4.8M | $5.2M | $10.0M | -$2.5M | -$5.5M | $3.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.10 | $0.08 | -$0.08 | $0.08 | $0.16 | -$0.04 | -$0.09 | $0.06 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $182.7M | $217.3M | $233.1M | $281.4M | $329.8M |
| Capital expenditure | -$123.3M | -$131.0M | -$154.9M | -$203.2M | -$245.1M |
| Free cash flow | $59.4M | $86.4M | $78.2M | $78.1M | $84.7M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $172,000 | $192,000 | $496.3M | $496.6M | $0 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $25.5M
- Total assets
- $3.56B
- Total liabilities
- $1.98B
- Total debt
- $1.45B
- Net debt
- $1.42B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $1.58B
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 5,071,072
- Days to cover
- 11.41
- Change vs previous report
- +4.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.