Stocks · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. FWRG
$10.51 -0.57% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $652.3M
Strong growth
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $0.28, up 373.0% year over year.
- At 37.0× trailing earnings, the shares trade at the lowest P/E of the company's past five years.
- Net debt is 10.2× EBITDA, a high level of leverage.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Cyclical sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 9%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 4%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 9%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 29%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 34%
- Gross marginBottom 45%
- Operating marginBottom 38%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Top 12%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 47%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 9%
- Interest coverTop 39%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 39%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 14%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 33%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 48%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 7%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 21%
- 6-month returnBottom 39%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 22%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 25%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 18%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 49%
- Consecutive EPS beatsBottom 13%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 7%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 40%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 44%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 42%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 28%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 9%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 20.4% | 19.3% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 66.7% | 373.0% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 34.0% | 33.7% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 1.7% | 4.3% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | -2.7% | -1.6% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 19.3% | 20.4% | ↓ | Top 9% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 373.0% | 66.7% | ↑ | Top 4% |
| Gross margin | 33.7% | 34.0% | ↓ | Bottom 45% |
| Operating margin | 4.3% | 1.7% | ↑ | Bottom 38% |
| Net margin | 1.4% | 0.2% | ↑ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -1.6% | -2.7% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 3.2% | — | Bottom 34% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 18.7% | — | Top 9% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 3.00×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -6.1%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +5.0 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- 10.24×
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 6.1×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.01%
- Shareholder yield
- 0.01%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -0.5%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- +0.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 28, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 0
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 1 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +9.6%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -1.8%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $14.50
- Target vs current price
- +38.0%
- Analysts with a rating
- 15
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 87%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | -24.0% | +2.4% | -3.8% | +1.4% | — |
| May 5, 2026 | -100.0% | -0.2% | -4.3% | -14.5% | +9.3% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | +200.0% | -20.5% | -19.6% | -20.3% | -29.7% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | -37.5% | +11.0% | +11.5% | +14.6% | +0.9% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | -57.1% | +3.5% | +3.0% | +8.7% | +2.6% |
| May 6, 2025 | -125.0% | -17.6% | -10.0% | -17.5% | -7.1% |
| Mar 11, 2025 | -50.0% | -7.0% | -10.3% | -10.8% | -14.0% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | -40.0% | +14.1% | +6.4% | +7.6% | +17.3% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.04 | $0.05 | -24.0% | $354.7M |
| May 5, 2026 | -$0.04 | -$0.02 | -100.0% | $331.0M |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $0.24 | $0.08 | +200.0% | $316.4M |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.05 | $0.08 | -37.5% | $316.0M |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.03 | $0.07 | -57.1% | $307.9M |
| May 6, 2025 | -$0.01 | $0.04 | -125.0% | $282.2M |
| Mar 11, 2025 | $0.01 | $0.02 | -50.0% | $263.3M |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.03 | $0.05 | -40.0% | $251.6M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 37.0× | 67.9× | 0th | Bottom 39% |
| P/E (forward) | 90.6× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.6× | — | — | Bottom 33% |
| EV / Sales | 1.29× | — | — | Bottom 48% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.22% | — | — | Bottom 14% |
| Earnings yield | 2.70% | — | — | Bottom 39% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 40.0× – 297.5× since Mar 27, 2022. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -34.0%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +373.0%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -84.8%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -6.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -4.8%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -10.8%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -18.2%
- RSI (14)
- 42.6
- Relative volume
- 1.16×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 44.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 33th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.32
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.36
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -43.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -60.4%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2024 | Mar 30, 2026 | -60.4% | 479 days | Not yet recovered |
| Oct 22, 2021 | Mar 14, 2022 | -47.5% | 97 days | 479 days (Feb 8, 2024) |
| Mar 4, 2024 | Apr 17, 2024 | -13.4% | 31 days | 9 days (Apr 30, 2024) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $652.3M
- P/E (TTM)
- 37.0
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $0.28
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.32B
- 52-week range
- $9.88 – $18.82
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $601.2M | $730.2M | $891.6M | $1.02B | $1.22B |
| Gross profit | $124.2M | $139.5M | $190.1M | $792.8M | $159.4M |
| Operating income | $22.2M | $16.9M | $41.3M | $38.9M | $33.8M |
| Net income | -$2.1M | $6.9M | $25.4M | $18.9M | $19.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.04 | $0.11 | $0.41 | $0.30 | $0.31 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $251.6M | $263.3M | $282.2M | $307.9M | $316.0M | $316.4M | $331.0M | $354.7M |
| Net income | $2.1M | $699,000 | -$2.2M | $2.1M | $3.0M | $15.2M | -$2.7M | $2.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.03 | $0.01 | -$0.01 | $0.03 | $0.05 | $0.24 | -$0.04 | $0.04 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $63.0M | $62.9M | $95.3M | $115.7M | $125.9M |
| Capital expenditure | -$35.7M | -$63.3M | -$84.7M | -$127.9M | -$156.9M |
| Free cash flow | $27.3M | -$393,000 | $10.7M | -$12.3M | -$31.0M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $182.1M | $0 | $0 | $6.4M | $1.2M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $20.5M
- Total assets
- $1.82B
- Total liabilities
- $1.19B
- Total debt
- $1.07B
- Net debt
- $1.05B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $634.2M
As of Jun 28, 2026 (filed Aug 4, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 6,521,625
- Days to cover
- 5.23
- Change vs previous report
- -4.0%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.