Stocks · Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. GO
$11.42 -1.72% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $1.15B
Expensive vs sectorHigh risk
Next earnings report: Nov 3, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $-3.88, down 5642.9% year over year.
- The stock is in an uptrend: above its 200-day average for 45 trading days, with the 50-day average above the 200-day.
- Over the past year the stock returned -29.4%, behind the S&P 500 by 45.2 percentage points.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Defensive sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 40%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 1%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 24%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 32%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 46%
- Gross marginBottom 43%
- Operating marginBottom 38%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 7%
- Interest coverTop 47%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 8%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 11%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 10%
- Sales / enterprise valueTop 21%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 26%
- 6-month returnTop 5%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 31%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 42%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 5%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 12%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 45%
- Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 34%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 5%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 38%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 11%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 17%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 6.0% | 5.1% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | -2531.2% | -5642.9% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 30.4% | 30.0% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 1.4% | 4.2% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | -1.1% | -0.3% | ↑ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 5.1% | 6.0% | ↓ | Top 40% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | -5642.9% | -2531.2% | ↓ | Bottom 1% |
| Gross margin | 30.0% | 30.4% | ↓ | Bottom 43% |
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 1.4% | ↑ | Bottom 38% |
| Net margin | -8.0% | 0.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | -0.3% | -1.1% | ↑ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 7.0% | — | Top 46% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 9.4% | — | Top 24% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -20.0%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 0.2%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- -25.4 pp
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- 6.4×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- -0.04%
- Shareholder yield
- -0.04%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +1.3%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -0.3%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jul 4, 2026 (filed Aug 12, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 2
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +52.4%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -0.4%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $10.80
- Target vs current price
- -5.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 23
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 35%
- Consensus rating
- Hold
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | +58.6% | +3.5% | +12.5% | +14.9% | — |
| May 13, 2026 | +150.0% | -2.8% | +2.0% | +16.1% | +24.5% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | -9.5% | -0.9% | -28.7% | -20.5% | -2.8% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | +10.5% | -0.5% | -18.6% | -21.0% | -33.1% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | +35.3% | -3.0% | +35.8% | +39.0% | +8.9% |
| May 6, 2025 | +85.7% | +0.2% | -13.0% | -13.9% | -19.2% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | -11.8% | -0.4% | -28.3% | -18.9% | -11.6% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | +3.7% | +1.0% | +30.3% | +37.4% | +14.6% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | $0.20 | $0.13 | +58.6% | $1.19B |
| May 13, 2026 | $0.05 | $0.02 | +150.0% | $1.17B |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.19 | $0.21 | -9.5% | $1.22B |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.21 | $0.19 | +10.5% | $1.17B |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.23 | $0.17 | +35.3% | $1.18B |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.13 | $0.07 | +85.7% | $1.13B |
| Feb 25, 2025 | $0.15 | $0.17 | -11.8% | $1.10B |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.28 | $0.27 | +3.7% | $1.11B |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 20.9× | — | — | — |
| EV / Sales | 0.62× | — | — | Top 21% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.41% | — | — | Bottom 11% |
| Earnings yield | -33.98% | — | — | Bottom 8% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 26.6× – 265.4× since Jul 3, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -29.4%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- -5642.9%
- Change in P/E multiple
- +630.2%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✓ Price above 200-day average
- ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✗ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 45
- Days above the 200-day average
- 45
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +6.1%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- +0.5%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +3.5%
- Distance from 200-day average
- +22.9%
- RSI (14)
- 51.5
- Relative volume
- 1.22×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 41.8%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 55th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 1.00
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.25
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -30.7%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -80.5%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2020 | Mar 20, 2026 | -87.6% | 1348 days | Not yet recovered |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $1.15B
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$3.88
- Revenue (TTM)
- $4.74B
- 52-week range
- $5.66 – $16.99
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.08B | $3.58B | $3.97B | $4.37B | $4.69B |
| Gross profit | $948.8M | $1.09B | $1.24B | $1.32B | $1.42B |
| Operating income | $89.1M | $95.0M | $125.8M | $78.3M | -$221.7M |
| Net income | $62.3M | $65.1M | $79.4M | $39.5M | -$224.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.63 | $0.65 | $0.79 | $0.40 | -$2.30 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.11B | $1.10B | $1.13B | $1.18B | $1.17B | $1.22B | $1.17B | $1.19B |
| Net income | $24.2M | $2.3M | -$23.3M | $5.0M | $11.6M | -$218.2M | -$180.3M | $5.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.24 | $0.02 | -$0.24 | $0.05 | $0.12 | -$2.23 | -$1.83 | $0.06 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $165.6M | $185.5M | $303.4M | $112.0M | $222.1M |
| Capital expenditure | -$123.4M | -$130.5M | -$192.0M | -$186.6M | -$198.3M |
| Free cash flow | $42.2M | $55.0M | $111.5M | -$74.6M | $23.8M |
| Dividends paid | -$186,000 | -$105,000 | -$15,000 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | $0 | -$3.5M | -$5.9M | -$81.4M | $700,000 |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $74.2M
- Total assets
- $2.99B
- Total liabilities
- $2.18B
- Total debt
- $1.85B
- Net debt
- $1.78B
- Shareholders’ equity
- $816.6M
As of Jul 4, 2026 (filed Aug 12, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 21,051,050
- Days to cover
- 8.40
- Change vs previous report
- -9.9%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.