Stocks · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
MGP Ingredients, Inc. MGPI
$12.77 -0.16% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $273.9M
Weak trendExpensive vs sectorHigh risk
Next earnings report: Oct 28, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- Operating margin narrowed to -53.5% from 3.6% a year earlier.
- Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 14 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +96.9%).
- Over the past year the stock returned -48.3%, behind the S&P 500 by 64.0 percentage points.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Defensive sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 6%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 8%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRBottom 5%
- Revenue growth accelerationTop 22%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalBottom 4%
- Gross marginTop 49%
- Operating marginBottom 2%
- Accruals (lower is better)Top 5%
- Interest coverBottom 2%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldBottom 4%
- Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 15%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 2%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 48%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 18%
- 6-month returnBottom 8%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 12%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 16%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 22%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 9%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 2%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 22%
- Upside to consensus price targetTop 16%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 36%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 19%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -20.4% | -18.0% | ↑ |
| Gross margin | 39.7% | 35.5% | ↓ |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | -53.5% | ↓ |
| FCF margin | 9.7% | 0.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | -18.0% | -20.4% | ↑ | Bottom 6% |
| Gross margin | 35.5% | 39.7% | ↓ | Top 49% |
| Operating margin | -53.5% | 3.6% | ↓ | Bottom 2% |
| Net margin | -48.4% | -1.1% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 0.2% | 9.7% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | -23.7% | — | Bottom 4% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | -11.8% | — | Bottom 5% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -25.2%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.0%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +6.1 pp
- Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
- -35.2×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 3.78%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 0.32%
- Shareholder yield
- 4.11%
- Share count change, 1 year
- +0.4%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -1.1%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 14
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 8 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +96.9%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- -4.5%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 2 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $21.00
- Target vs current price
- +64.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 14
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 71%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | +46.9% | +0.9% | -8.6% | -4.3% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +275.0% | -5.2% | -1.2% | -9.5% | -12.5% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | +28.6% | -21.2% | -28.3% | -30.1% | -30.0% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | +37.1% | +4.3% | +5.0% | -4.6% | +5.7% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | +51.6% | -3.7% | -5.7% | +1.4% | -16.9% |
| May 1, 2025 | +16.1% | +4.8% | +7.2% | +2.2% | +5.1% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | +5.4% | -1.1% | -0.7% | -11.5% | -4.8% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | +3.2% | -14.7% | -14.2% | -18.3% | -36.4% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $0.72 | $0.49 | +46.9% | $124.4M |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.15 | $0.04 | +275.0% | $106.4M |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $0.63 | $0.49 | +28.6% | $138.3M |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $0.85 | $0.62 | +37.1% | $130.9M |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.97 | $0.64 | +51.6% | $145.5M |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.36 | $0.31 | +16.1% | $121.7M |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $1.57 | $1.49 | +5.4% | $180.8M |
| Oct 31, 2024 | $1.29 | $1.25 | +3.2% | $161.5M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward) | 7.7× | — | — | — |
| EV / Sales | 1.27× | — | — | Bottom 48% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.32% | — | — | Bottom 15% |
| Earnings yield | -88.18% | — | — | Bottom 4% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 10.0× – 68.6× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✗ Price above 20-day average
- ✗ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 0
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- -8.0%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -5.1%
- Distance from 50-day average
- -20.4%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -33.3%
- RSI (14)
- 27.7
- Relative volume
- 1.30×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 42.7%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 79th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.97
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.32
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -51.6%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -87.9%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2022 | Sep 24, 2026 | -89.8% | 959 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jun 9, 2021 | Aug 2, 2021 | -22.2% | 37 days | 66 days (Nov 3, 2021) |
| Sep 8, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | -17.2% | 24 days | 25 days (Nov 16, 2022) |
| Feb 17, 2021 | Mar 31, 2021 | -15.8% | 30 days | 42 days (Jun 1, 2021) |
| Dec 7, 2021 | Jan 27, 2022 | -14.2% | 35 days | 45 days (Apr 1, 2022) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $273.9M
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- -$11.26
- Revenue (TTM)
- $500.0M
- Dividend yield
- 3.76%
- 52-week range
- $12.42 – $26.77
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $626.7M | $782.4M | $836.5M | $703.6M | $536.4M |
| Gross profit | $199.0M | $253.3M | $304.7M | $286.3M | $199.4M |
| Operating income | $126.4M | $149.0M | $148.6M | $74.4M | -$94.6M |
| Net income | $91.3M | $109.5M | $107.5M | $34.7M | -$107.8M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.32 | $4.92 | $4.80 | $1.56 | -$4.99 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $161.5M | $180.8M | $121.7M | $145.5M | $130.9M | $138.3M | $106.4M | $124.4M |
| Net income | $23.9M | -$42.0M | -$3.0M | $14.4M | $15.4M | -$134.6M | -$134.8M | $12.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.07 | -$1.91 | -$0.14 | $0.67 | $0.71 | -$6.22 | -$6.30 | $0.55 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $88.3M | $88.9M | $83.8M | $102.3M | $121.5M |
| Capital expenditure | -$47.4M | -$45.3M | -$55.3M | -$71.2M | -$45.5M |
| Free cash flow | $40.9M | $43.6M | $28.5M | $31.1M | $76.0M |
| Dividends paid | -$10.0M | -$10.6M | -$10.7M | -$10.6M | -$10.3M |
| Net share buybacks | -$767,000 | -$715,000 | -$801,000 | -$48.8M | -$1.0M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $17.8M
- Total assets
- $1.06B
- Total liabilities
- $466.9M
- Total debt
- $377.8M
- Net debt
- $360.0M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $590.8M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 29, 2026).
Dividends
| Ex-date | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | $0.12 | Aug 28, 2026 |
| May 15, 2026 | $0.12 | May 29, 2026 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | $0.12 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | $0.12 | Nov 28, 2025 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | $0.12 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| May 16, 2025 | $0.12 | May 30, 2025 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | $0.12 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | $0.12 | Nov 29, 2024 |
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 1,009,506
- Days to cover
- 4.04
- Change vs previous report
- -4.8%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.
Stock splits
- Jul 16, 2004
- 2-for-1
- Jul 16, 1992
- 3-for-2