Stocks · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. NOG

$24.03 +0.84% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NYSE · Market cap $2.59B

Expensive vs sectorHigh risk

Next earnings report: Nov 9, 2026

Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.

Three things to know

  1. Diluted EPS over the last four quarters was $-5.12, down 184.5% year over year.
  2. Operating margin narrowed to 32.0% from 43.7% a year earlier.
  3. Earnings beat analyst estimates in each of the last 6 quarters (average surprise over the last four: +10.2%).

PromtFinance scores

Each score is a percentile within the Energy sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.

Growth24Very weak

How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.

  • Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 27%
  • EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 11%
  • Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 46%
  • Revenue growth accelerationTop 40%
Quality68Positive

Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.

  • Return on invested capitalTop 30%
  • Gross marginTop 47%
  • Operating marginTop 23%
  • Accruals (lower is better)Top 1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 5%
  • Interest coverTop 48%
Value9Very weak

How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.

  • Earnings yieldBottom 8%
  • Free-cash-flow yieldBottom 6%
  • EBITDA / enterprise valueBottom 23%
  • Sales / enterprise valueBottom 49%
Momentum30Weak

Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.

  • 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 29%
  • 6-month returnBottom 30%
  • 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 30%
  • Distance from 52-week highBottom 44%
  • Trend checklist (0–4)Bottom 42%
Revisions75Positive

Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).

  • Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersTop 44%
  • Consecutive EPS beatsTop 7%
  • Share of analysts rating BuyBottom 43%
  • Upside to consensus price targetTop 44%
Stability14Very weak

Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.

  • Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Bottom 37%
  • Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsBottom 32%
  • Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 44%
  • Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Bottom 5%

What changed

Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).

MeasureBeforeNow
Revenue growth (YoY)-6.8%0.1%↑
EPS growth (YoY)-198.3%-184.5%↑
Gross margin37.5%34.5%↓
Operating margin43.7%32.0%↓
FCF margin-10.7%-37.7%↓

Fundamental momentum

MeasureNow (TTM)Year / quarter beforeSector rank
Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)0.1%-6.8%↑Bottom 27%
EPS growth (TTM, YoY)-184.5%-198.3%↑Bottom 11%
Gross margin34.5%37.5%↓Top 47%
Operating margin32.0%43.7%↓Top 23%
Net margin-21.8%27.4%↓—
Free-cash-flow margin-37.7%-10.7%↓—
Return on invested capital10.4%—Top 30%
Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR1.8%—Top 46%

Quality of earnings and balance sheet

Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
-32.0%
Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
0.7%
Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
-6.4 pp
Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
8.33×
Interest cover (operating income / interest)How many times operating profit covers interest.
4.2×

Shareholder returns

Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
6.93%
Net buyback yield (TTM)
-6.59%
Shareholder yield
0.34%
Share count change, 1 year
+8.7%
Share count change, 3-year CAGR
+6.6%

Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.

Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).

Earnings and expectations

Earnings momentum

Consecutive EPS beats
6
Beats in the last 8 reports
7 of 8
Average EPS surprise, last 4
+10.2%
Average 2-day reaction, last 8
+0.4%
Positive 20 days after report
5 of 8

Analysts

Consensus price target
$30.67
Target vs current price
+27.6%
Analysts with a rating
13
Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
54%
Consensus rating
Buy

How the stock reacted to recent reports

Report dateEPS surprise2 days5 days20 days60 days
Aug 6, 2026+10.8%+2.6%+21.9%+34.5%—
Apr 28, 2026+4.2%+2.6%-0.3%-16.9%-18.9%
Feb 25, 2026+7.5%-2.6%+3.3%+7.1%-11.4%
Nov 6, 2025+18.3%-0.0%+7.5%+20.3%+19.6%
Jul 31, 2025+45.0%-1.5%-12.4%-9.9%-22.4%
Apr 29, 2025+18.7%-0.2%-2.0%+10.9%+15.9%
Feb 19, 2025-12.6%+0.6%-8.5%-14.9%-15.3%
Nov 5, 2024+20.7%+1.5%+13.5%+20.1%-1.0%

Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.

Earnings history

Report dateEPSEstimateSurpriseRevenue
Aug 6, 2026$1.13$1.02+10.8%$745.2M
Apr 28, 2026$0.74$0.71+4.2%$5.0M
Feb 25, 2026$0.83$0.77+7.5%$610.2M
Nov 6, 2025$1.03$0.87+18.3%$556.6M
Jul 31, 2025$1.37$0.95+45.0%$706.8M
Apr 29, 2025$1.33$1.12+18.7%$602.1M
Feb 19, 2025$1.11$1.27-12.6%$549.2M
Nov 5, 2024$1.40$1.16+20.7%$515.5M

Valuation in context

MultipleNow5-year median5-year percentileSector rank (cheapness)
P/E (forward)6.1×———
EV / EBITDA16.4×——Bottom 23%
EV / Sales2.37×——Bottom 49%
Free-cash-flow yield-32.34%——Bottom 6%
Earnings yield-21.31%——Bottom 8%

P/E over the past five years

Range 2.1× – 67.3× since Jun 30, 2022. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.

What moved the stock over the past year

Price return, 1 year
-0.3%
Earnings per share growth (TTM)
-184.5%
Change in P/E multiple
+878.3%

Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.

Technical state

Trend checklist

  • ✗ Price above 20-day average
  • ✗ Price above 50-day average
  • ✗ Price above 200-day average
  • ✓ 50-day average above 200-day
  • ✗ MACD histogram positive

Trend quality

Days above the 50-day average
0
Days above the 200-day average
0
50-day average slope (20 days)
+8.7%
200-day average slope (20 days)
+0.7%
Distance from 50-day average
-0.7%
Distance from 200-day average
-0.2%
RSI (14)
48.3
Relative volume
0.88×

Risk and drawdowns

Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
46.8%
Volatility vs own 5-year history
56th percentile · Normal for this stock
Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
0.55
Correlation with S&P 500
0.17
Current drawdown from 1-year high
-22.0%
Maximum drawdown, 3 years
-60.1%

Largest declines in the past six years

From peakTo lowDeclineLengthRecovery
Apr 29, 2024Jul 6, 2026-60.1%546 daysNot yet recovered
Oct 8, 2020Nov 6, 2020-46.2%21 days12 days (Nov 24, 2020)
Jun 10, 2022Jul 14, 2022-39.4%22 days85 days (Nov 11, 2022)
Jul 1, 2021Aug 19, 2021-32.6%34 days28 days (Sep 29, 2021)
Oct 12, 2021Dec 14, 2021-31.1%44 days55 days (Mar 4, 2022)

Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.

Financial statements

Market cap
$2.59B
EPS, diluted (TTM)
-$5.12
Revenue (TTM)
$2.23B
Dividend yield
7.49%
52-week range
$17.18 – $31.17
FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$975.1M$1.99B$1.91B$2.16B$2.10B
Gross profit$586.5M$1.32B$913.9M$836.0M$675.2M
Operating income$78.0M$853.2M$1.12B$837.8M$613.9M
Net income$6.4M$773.2M$923.0M$520.3M$38.8M
EPS (diluted)-$0.13$8.40$10.03$5.14$0.39
Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue$515.5M$549.2M$580.3M$578.0M$485.9M$450.9M$544.1M$745.2M
Net income$298.4M$71.7M$139.0M$99.6M-$129.1M-$70.7M-$522.8M$236.6M
EPS (diluted)$2.96$0.71$1.39$1.00-$1.33-$0.67-$5.31$2.19
FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Operating cash flow$396.5M$928.4M$1.18B$1.41B$1.51B
Capital expenditure-$593.8M-$1.36B-$1.86B-$1.67B-$1.25B
Free cash flow-$197.3M-$431.4M-$679.0M-$266.1M$252.8M
Dividends paid-$4.9M-$51.6M-$123.9M-$162.0M-$173.4M
Net share buybacks$438.1M-$54.5M$506.7M-$94.5M-$57.0M

Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.

Cash and short-term investments
$47.6M
Total assets
$5.83B
Total liabilities
$3.83B
Total debt
$2.72B
Net debt
$2.68B
Shareholders’ equity
$2.00B

As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Aug 7, 2026).

Dividends

Ex-dateAmountPaid
Sep 29, 2026$0.45Oct 30, 2026
Jun 29, 2026$0.45Jul 31, 2026
Mar 30, 2026$0.45Apr 30, 2026
Dec 30, 2025$0.45Jan 30, 2026
Sep 29, 2025$0.45Oct 31, 2025
Jun 27, 2025$0.45Jul 31, 2025
Mar 28, 2025$0.45Apr 30, 2025
Dec 30, 2024$0.42Jan 31, 2025

Short interest

Shares sold short
21,883,131
Days to cover
11.59
Change vs previous report
+0.8%

FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.

Stock splits

Sep 21, 2020
1-for-10