ProFrac falls 31.7% after Q3 results

What happened

ProFrac (ACDC) fell 31.7% to $2.71 on November 5, 2026, because third-quarter results missed estimates and management pointed to slower frac sand activity and inefficient pump scheduling. The company reported earnings per share of $-0.45 versus $-0.27 expected. Management said the operational issues reduced adjusted earnings, while Flotek contributed positively, according to Business Wire and Seeking Alpha.

The move came amid a broadly weak market: the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Energy sector median fell 4.1% on the day.

How big was the move

The stock opened 5.0% below the previous close and ended the session down 31.7%. The drop equaled 4.8 times a typical daily move for this stock, with trading volume 4.8 times its 20-day average, reflecting a concentrated sell-off. Over the last five sessions the stock has fallen 44.1% while the S&P 500 over five sessions fell 4.7%. The session’s performance was 27.6 percentage points worse than the sector median.

ProFrac’s market value is $888.8 million and the stock’s market sensitivity is a beta of 1.67, so the stock tends to move more than the market.

The technical picture

Technically, the shares are deep in negative territory versus recent averages. The stock is 36.3% below its 20-day moving average, 41.5% below its 50-day moving average and 51.1% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend.

Momentum indicators also pointed to stressed conditions: the Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 27, below the 30 level often called oversold, and the shares are 67.0% below the 52-week high. Recent price momentum has been negative: the stock fell 43.2% over one month, fell 37.3% over three months and fell 47.1% over one year. Volatility is elevated at 105% annualized over 60 days, which is higher than 89% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, ProFrac reported revenue of $1.90 billion, a decline of 3.3% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $-2.30 and gross margin was 11.3%, up from 3.9% a year earlier. Operating margin was 8.6% versus 8.4% a year earlier.

Free-cash-flow margin was 1.3% and return on invested capital was 9.9%. The balance sheet shows net debt of 6.6 times EBITDA and share count over one year increased by 6.6%. On valuation, ProFrac’s free-cash-flow yield is 2.7%.

Those figures underline a company with improving margin ratios but elevated leverage. Gross margin widened materially year on year, yet net debt of 6.6 times EBITDA points to significant balance-sheet risk if cash flows weaken. Free-cash-flow margin of 1.3% and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.7% suggest limited cushion for investors if activity slows again.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The November 5 report showed earnings per share of $-0.45 against $-0.27 expected, 69.8% below estimates. That miss followed a pattern of weak surprises: the company posted 0 consecutive quarters beating estimates and its average surprise over the last four reports was 40.3% below estimates. Historically, the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was that the stock fell 6.4%, making the current 31.7% move an outsized market response.

Analysts’ consensus rating is Hold based on six analysts and the consensus price target is $5.50, which is 103.0% above the closing price. None of the analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.

What to watch

• Next report: November 9, 2026.
• Management commentary that activity improved in October and that they expect a tighter equipment market and higher pricing to bolster results in 2027, as reported by Business Wire and Seeking Alpha.
• Balance sheet leverage: net debt of 6.6 times EBITDA.
• Operational trends in frac sand results and pumping efficiency, which management cited as drivers of the quarter.
• Share count change: increased by 6.6% over one year.