Marathon Petroleum falls 8.1% after third-quarter results drive the move

What happened

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) fell 8.1% on November 4, 2026, after its third-quarter results showed stronger refining margins and an expanded buyback program. The stock closed at $392.68 after it opened 2.2% below the previous close and traded at 1.9 times its 20-day average. The move occurred while the S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Energy sector median fell 4.1%, leaving the stock 4.0 percentage points worse than its sector median. Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research reported the company’s results and the related portfolio actions.

How big was the move

The session decline equaled 3.2 times a typical daily move for the stock and left shares down 10.9% over the last five sessions. Volume was elevated at 1.9 times its 20-day average, signaling heavier trade than usual. With a beta of 0.40, the stock tends to move less than the market, so a drop of this size points to an outsized, company-specific reaction tied to the earnings release. Over the five-session frame the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, underscoring that the larger decline was concentrated in Marathon Petroleum on the reporting day.

The technical picture

Technically, the stock sat 13.7% below its 20-day moving average and 6.8% below its 50-day moving average, while remaining 33.5% above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a sign of an established uptrend, and the stock has spent 194 consecutive trading days above the 200-day average. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 35, inside the neutral range between 30 and 70. Over one month the shares fell 9.2%; over three months they rose 31.2%; and over one year they rose 100.6%, a gain 88.4 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. Volatility was 40% annualized over 60 days, higher than 90% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported revenue of $175.17 billion, which grew 31.4% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $51.13, which rose 444.5% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 15.6% versus 6.7% a year earlier, and operating margin was 12.0% versus 3.6% a year earlier. Free-cash-flow margin stood at 11.9% and return on invested capital was 14.2%; the balance sheet showed net debt of 0.9 times EBITDA. Share count over one year decreased by 7.9%, supporting the company’s per-share metrics.

Valuation reflects strong cash generation: the stock traded at 7.7 times trailing earnings and 6.0 times expected forward earnings, with a free-cash-flow yield of 16.7%. Versus its own history, the price to trailing earnings was lower than 67% of its own readings over the past five years, where the five-year median is 10.8 times earnings. PromtFinance scores rank the company highly for Value at 96, Growth at 94 and Momentum at 95, while Quality is 64 and Stability is 57.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Marathon Petroleum’s last report, released November 3, 2026, showed earnings per share of $26.93 against $25.37 expected, 6.1% above estimates, and reported adjusted EBITDA of $11.7 billion driven by record refinery utilization and stronger refining margins. The company also noted renewable diesel profitability and expanded its share buyback program. As part of a portfolio reshaping tied to its Gulf Coast growth strategy, Marathon Petroleum agreed to sell its St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries and associated midstream assets to CVR Energy for $4.2 billion. The firm has beaten estimates in four consecutive quarters, with an average surprise over the last four reports of 50.8% above estimates; the typical two-day reaction after recent reports was a rise of 1.5%.

Analysts remain constructive. Consensus rating is Buy, with 76% of analysts at Buy or Strong Buy, a consensus price target of $444.30 that is 13.1% above the closing price, and 33 analysts covering the stock.

What to watch

• Next report: February 2, 2027.
• Last report: November 3, 2026: earnings per share of $26.93 against $25.37 expected, 6.1% above estimates.
• Company announced sale of St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries and associated midstream assets to CVR Energy for $4.2 billion.
• Share count over one year decreased by 7.9% and the company expanded its share buyback program.