Redwire falls 19.8% after third-quarter results that missed revenue expectations

What happened

Redwire (RDW) fell 19.8% on November 5, 2026, after reporting third-quarter results that missed revenue forecasts. The stock closed at $6.19 and opened 6.5% below the previous close. Trading volume was 2.2 times its 20-day average as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Industrials sector median fell 4.7% on the day. Business Wire and Benzinga reported the company’s third-quarter release, which showed year-over-year revenue growth, a widened backlog to $619.7 million and record gross margins.

How big was the move

The one-day decline was 4.3 times a typical daily move for this stock and left the stock 32.4% lower over the last five sessions. Compared with its sector, the stock was 15.1 percentage points worse than the sector median on the day. Market sensitivity remained elevated with a beta of 3.18, consistent with swings larger than the market. The S&P 500 fell 4.7% over five sessions, indicating broad weakness, but Redwire’s move was materially larger.

The technical picture

The stock traded well below several moving averages: 26.9% below its 20-day moving average, 37.4% below its 50-day moving average and 43.8% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. Its Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 26, below 30, a level often called oversold. Over one month the stock fell 39.6% and over three months it fell 54.5%, leaving it 76.8% below the 52-week high. Volatility measured 74% annualized over 60 days, lower than 70% of its own readings over five years.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $431.9 million, up 45.8% from a year earlier. Gross margin stood at 24.1%, versus 3.9% a year earlier, while operating margin was 46.0%, down from 56.4% a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share for the period were $-1.26 and free-cash-flow margin was 32.5%. Balance sheet metrics showed net cash of $398.9 million. Share count over one year increased by 144.0%, and the company’s free-cash-flow yield was 6.7%.

The numbers present a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and a sharply improved gross margin contrast with a sizable loss per share and rapid share dilution. Net cash of $398.9 million provides a buffer, while a free-cash-flow yield of 6.7% reflects cash generation relative to the market value of $2.10 billion.

Earnings and analyst expectations

The last reported quarter was November 4, 2026, when the company reported earnings per share of $-0.06 against $-0.11 expected, 45.0% above estimates. That report marked one consecutive quarter beating estimates. The typical two-day reaction after recent reports was fell 0.7%. The next report is scheduled for February 24, 2027.

Analysts show a consensus price target of $14.10, which is 127.8% above the closing price, based on 10 analysts and a consensus rating of Buy; 80% of the share ratings are Buy or Strong Buy. PromtFinance scores rank the stock strong on Growth at 74 but very weak on Value at 9, Quality at 13 and Stability at 5, indicating investor interest in growth offset by persistent financial and share-structure concerns.

What to watch

• February 24, 2027: next quarterly report date.
• November 4, 2026: last report showed earnings per share of $-0.06 against $-0.11 expected, 45.0% above estimates.
• Backlog level reported in the quarter: widened to $619.7 million.
• Share count over one year: increased by 144.0%.