News · Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) · Industrials

Caterpillar falls 9.3% after third-quarter results and guidance weigh on shares

Session of October 29, 2026 · Published October 30, 2026 · 3 min read

What happened

Caterpillar (CAT) fell 9.3% on October 29, 2026, because of its third-quarter results and management commentary on the outlook. The company reported third-quarter sales of $20.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.20, said demand remained strong across its power generation, construction and resource businesses, and maintained full-year guidance for mid- to high-teens revenue growth. The quarter included a record backlog of $78.1 billion and $2.0 billion deployed for share repurchases and dividends. Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, investors pushed the stock lower after management’s guidance and mixed segment commentary weighed on near-term prospects.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On October 29, 2026, CAT closed at $647.39, down 9.3% on the day and 20.0% lower than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $647.39, a drop that was 4.0 times a typical daily move for this stock. Volume ran 3.0 times its 20-day average, and the stock opened 10.8% below the previous close. The decline was 10.6 percentage points worse than the industrials sector median, which rose 1.4% on the day, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 8.0%, versus the S&P 500’s five-session rise of 0.7%.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is October 29, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 2.5%, so the latest move equals 3.6 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 5.1%) are unusual.

The technical picture

The stock sits 14.3% below its 20-day moving average and 17.8% below its 50-day moving average. It is 20.1% below its 200-day moving average, and the 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is 26, below 30, a level often called oversold. Shares are 39.7% below the 52-week high; over one month and three months the stock fell 20.2% and 20.5% respectively. Volatility was 37% annualized over 60 days, higher than 79% of its own readings over five years.

Closing price over the past year. CAT ends the period 39.2% below its 52-week high, below its 50-day average ($787.16) and below its 200-day average ($809.99).

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $77.77 billion, which grew 20.3% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share for that period were $25.49, up 30.8% year over year. Gross margin rose to 34.3% from 33.9 a year earlier, and operating margin climbed to 18.3% from 17.7. Free-cash-flow margin stood at 15.0% and return on invested capital at 13.3%. The balance sheet showed net cash of $7.93 billion, and share count over one year decreased by 2.1%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $20.7B, 17.3% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

Valuation shows a price to trailing earnings of 25.4 times trailing earnings, which is higher than 76% of its readings over the past five years; the five-year median is 17.9 times earnings. Price to forward earnings is 23.6 times expected earnings and free-cash-flow yield is 3.7%. The PromtFinance scores rank the company strong on Growth at 80 and Quality at 85, with Revisions at 80 and Stability at 74, while Value is 41 and Momentum is 42. Caterpillar’s recent fundamentals point to strong growth and profitability, but the shares price that progress at a premium versus its own history.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Caterpillar’s last report, on October 29, 2026, showed earnings per share of $7.20 against $7.06 expected, 2.0% above estimates, marking the fifth consecutive quarter beating estimates. The company’s average surprise over the last four reports was 15.5% above estimates. Typical two-day reactions after recent reports have been rises of 2.2%, underscoring how unusual this session’s sell-off was. The next scheduled report is November 4, 2026.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows $7.13, against $4.89 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Analysts’ consensus price target is $974.50, which is 50.5% above the closing price on October 29, 2026. Fifty-four percent of the 57 analysts covering the stock rate it buys or strong buys, and the consensus rating is Buy. That gap between the consensus target and the market price helps explain why some investors see the sell-off as a buying opportunity while others remain cautious given the premium valuation.

What to watch

November 4, 2026: next scheduled earnings report.
Record backlog of $78.1 billion and management commentary on segment demand and guidance updates from the October 29 release.
Consensus price target of $974.50, 50.5% above the closing price.
Trading volume at 3.0 times its 20-day average and the 14-day RSI at 26, often called oversold.

Full CAT analysis: scores, chart and financials →