News · Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) · Consumer Defensive

Grand Canyon Education falls 18.9% after weaker enrollments and lowered outlook

Session of November 5, 2026 · Published November 6, 2026 · 4 min read

What happened

Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) fell 18.9% on November 5, 2026, because of weaker-than-expected new enrollments at its traditional campus and a lowered outlook after third-quarter results. The company reported earnings on November 4, 2026, with earnings per share of $1.77 against $1.76 expected, 0.6% above estimates, but management warned that new enrollments were softer than anticipated and cut its revenue and operating margin guidance. Investors drove a sharp sell-off the next day as the market reacted to that guidance change.

Closing price over the last 30 trading sessions. On November 5, 2026, LOPE closed at $122.25, down 18.9% on the day and 17.0% lower than 30 sessions earlier.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $122.25, having fallen 18.9% on the day and fell 20.7% over the last five sessions. It opened 3.7% below the previous close, and trading volume was 4.5 times its 20-day average. The move was 6.1 times a typical daily move for this stock. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on the day and fell 4.7% over five sessions, while the Consumer Defensive sector median fell 1.7% on the day; the stock was 17.2 percentage points worse than the sector median. The company’s market value stood at $3.85 billion.

Each bar is one day's price change; the outlined bar is November 5, 2026. A typical daily move over the past year was 1.9%, so the latest move equals 9.9 times that. Moves outside the dashed lines (about 3.8%) are unusual.

The technical picture

The stock traded well below its key averages: 21.6% below its 20-day moving average, 20.3% below its 50-day moving average and 22.0% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14 days) was 20, below 30, a level often called oversold. The stock is 34.7% below the 52-week high and fell 21.5% over one month and fell 19.9% over three months. Over one year it fell 33.9%, which is 42.5 percentage points behind the S&P 500. Volatility is 49% annualized over 60 days, the highest reading of the past five years. These technicals point to heavy recent selling pressure and a materially weakened setup for the shares.

Closing price over the past year. LOPE ends the period 32.3% below its 52-week high, below its 50-day average ($153.39) and below its 200-day average ($156.76).

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through September 30, 2026, revenue was $1.15 billion, which grew 5.3% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $9.36, and earnings per share growth from a year earlier rose 26.1%. Gross margin was 53.3% (a year earlier: 53.0%) and operating margin was 27.3% (a year earlier: 27.1%). Free-cash-flow margin was 23.1% and return on invested capital was 29.7%. The balance sheet shows net debt of 0.2 times EBITDA, and the share count over one year decreased by 7.6%.

Quarterly revenue by period end. The latest quarter brought $267M, 2.4% more than the same quarter a year earlier.

The market valued the company at 13.1 times trailing earnings, the lowest reading of the past five years (five-year median: 19.6 times earnings). Price to forward earnings stood at 12.0 times expected earnings and the free-cash-flow yield was 6.9%. Those valuation metrics suggest investors are pricing in materially slower growth or higher risk after management trimmed guidance.

Earnings and analyst expectations

Grand Canyon Education reported on November 4, 2026, with earnings per share of $1.77 against $1.76 expected, 0.6% above estimates, marking four consecutive quarters beating estimates and an average surprise of 3.1% above estimates over the last four reports. Typical two-day reaction after recent reports was fell 0.4%, which contrasts with the outsized one-day drop on November 5, 2026, driven by guidance revisions.

Diluted earnings per share by quarter. The latest quarter shows $1.67, against $0.58 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Management explicitly cited weaker-than-expected new enrollments at Grand Canyon University’s traditional campus and reduced both revenue outlook and expected operating margin, which directly explains the market’s reaction on November 5, 2026. The next report is scheduled for February 17, 2027.

Analysts set a consensus price target of $160.67, 31.4% above the closing price, based on 18 analysts. Ninety-four percent of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the consensus rating is Buy. Those figures show Wall Street remains generally positive on the company’s prospects despite the near-term enrollment weakness and the share-price decline.

PromtFinance scores rank the stock within the sector as follows: Value 76 (Positive), Growth 60 (Neutral), Quality 91 (Exceptional), Momentum 14 (Very weak), Revisions 84 (Strong), Stability 40 (Weak). High quality and revision scores reflect strong profitability and recent analyst upgrades, while weak momentum and stability mirror the recent price volatility and guidance cut.

What to watch

November 4, 2026: Q3 report with EPS $1.77 vs $1.76 expected and lowered revenue and operating margin outlook
February 17, 2027: next scheduled earnings report
Consensus price target $160.67, 31.4% above the closing price, based on 18 analysts
Share rating Buy with 94% of analysts at Buy or Strong Buy
PromtFinance scores: Value 76 (Positive), Growth 60 (Neutral), Quality 91 (Exceptional), Momentum 14 (Very weak), Revisions 84 (Strong), Stability 40 (Weak)

Full LOPE analysis: scores, chart and financials →