Stocks · Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. LOPE
$154.93 -0.55% Close, Oct 5, 2026 · NASDAQ · Market cap $4.06B
High quality
Next earnings report: Nov 4, 2026
Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to move. Daily prices adjusted for splits. Markers: E = earnings (green beat, red miss), S = split, D = dividend.
Three things to know
- The stock is in a downtrend: below its 200-day average, with the 50-day average below the 200-day.
- The diluted share count fell 6.8% in a year, mainly through buybacks.
- Over the past year the stock returned -29.1%, behind the S&P 500 by 44.8 percentage points.
PromtFinance scores
Each score is a percentile within the Consumer Defensive sector (0–100). Under each score: how the stock ranks in its sector on every component. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How fast revenue, earnings and cash flow are growing.
- Revenue growth (TTM, YoY)Top 32%
- EPS growth (TTM, YoY)Top 48%
- FCF growth (TTM, YoY)Bottom 37%
- Revenue growth, 3-year CAGRTop 32%
- Revenue growth accelerationBottom 39%
Returns on capital, margins, earnings quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Return on invested capitalTop 3%
- Gross marginTop 22%
- Operating marginTop 5%
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Bottom 21%
- Accruals (lower is better)Bottom 49%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 17%
How cheap the shares are relative to earnings, cash flow and their own history.
- Earnings yieldTop 32%
- Free-cash-flow yieldTop 49%
- EBITDA / enterprise valueTop 47%
- Sales / enterprise valueBottom 12%
- P/E vs own 5-year history (lower is better)Top 47%
Strength and persistence of the price trend, including versus the S&P 500.
- 12-month return excluding last monthBottom 20%
- 6-month returnBottom 46%
- 1-year return vs S&P 500Bottom 31%
- Distance from 52-week highBottom 44%
- Trend checklist (0–4)Top 26%
Earnings surprises and analyst sentiment (estimate-revision history is being collected).
- Average EPS surprise, last 4 quartersBottom 33%
- Consecutive EPS beatsTop 34%
- Share of analysts rating BuyTop 5%
- Upside to consensus price targetBottom 13%
Low volatility, shallow drawdowns, low market sensitivity and modest leverage.
- Volatility, 60 days (lower is better)Top 46%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 yearsTop 29%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (lower is better)Bottom 21%
- Net debt / EBITDA (lower is better)Top 17%
What changed
Latest four quarters versus the same period a year earlier (growth: versus one quarter earlier).
| Measure | Before | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 7.4% | 7.0% | ↓ |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 0.4% | 0.1% | ↓ |
| Gross margin | 53.0% | 53.3% | ↑ |
| Operating margin | 27.0% | 27.8% | ↑ |
| FCF margin | 24.5% | 21.2% | ↓ |
Fundamental momentum
| Measure | Now (TTM) | Year / quarter before | Sector rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (TTM, YoY) | 7.0% | 7.4% | ↓ | Top 32% |
| EPS growth (TTM, YoY) | 0.1% | 0.4% | ↓ | Top 48% |
| Gross margin | 53.3% | 53.0% | ↑ | Top 22% |
| Operating margin | 27.8% | 27.0% | ↑ | Top 5% |
| Net margin | 19.6% | 22.2% | ↓ | — |
| Free-cash-flow margin | 21.2% | 24.5% | ↓ | — |
| Return on invested capital | 29.7% | — | Top 3% | |
| Revenue growth, 3-year CAGR | 6.7% | — | Top 32% |
Quality of earnings and balance sheet
- Cash conversion (OCF / net income)Above 1× means profits are backed by cash.
- 1.24×
- Accruals (net income − OCF) / assetsLower is better; high accruals can signal weaker earnings quality.
- -5.9%
- Stock-based compensation / revenueA cost to shareholders through dilution.
- 1.2%
- Receivables growth vs revenue growthReceivables growing much faster than sales can be a warning.
- +15.5 pp
- Net debt / EBITDABelow 1× is conservative; above 3× is high leverage.
- -0.20×
Shareholder returns
- Dividend yield (dividends paid, TTM)
- 0.00%
- Net buyback yield (TTM)
- 8.44%
- Shareholder yield
- 8.44%
- Share count change, 1 year
- -6.8%
- Share count change, 3-year CAGR
- -4.7%
Shareholder yield = dividends + net buybacks over the last four quarters, divided by market cap.
Based on the four quarters through Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Earnings and expectations
Earnings momentum
- Consecutive EPS beats
- 3
- Beats in the last 8 reports
- 6 of 8
- Average EPS surprise, last 4
- +3.0%
- Average 2-day reaction, last 8
- +1.2%
- Positive 20 days after report
- 4 of 8
Analysts
- Consensus price target
- $161.67
- Target vs current price
- +4.4%
- Analysts with a rating
- 18
- Share rating Buy or Strong Buy
- 94%
- Consensus rating
- Buy
How the stock reacted to recent reports
| Report date | EPS surprise | 2 days | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | +8.4% | -5.8% | -5.5% | -6.6% | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +2.9% | -0.1% | -2.8% | -11.0% | -14.4% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | +0.6% | +3.4% | -3.4% | +3.3% | -1.0% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | +0.0% | -3.6% | -8.5% | -16.8% | -5.3% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | +11.7% | +2.6% | +18.1% | +22.6% | +21.7% |
| May 6, 2025 | +2.4% | -0.3% | +5.2% | +6.1% | -9.4% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | +0.7% | -0.8% | -4.4% | -9.8% | +4.7% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | -3.4% | +14.6% | +21.7% | +21.9% | +28.2% |
Returns from the close before each report. Past reactions do not determine future ones.
Earnings history
| Report date | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.81 | $1.67 | +8.4% | $264.0M |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $2.86 | $2.78 | +2.9% | $308.8M |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $3.21 | $3.19 | +0.6% | $308.1M |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $1.78 | $1.78 | +0.0% | $261.1M |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $1.53 | $1.37 | +11.7% | $247.5M |
| May 6, 2025 | $2.57 | $2.51 | +2.4% | $289.3M |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $2.95 | $2.93 | +0.7% | $292.6M |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $1.42 | $1.47 | -3.4% | $238.3M |
Valuation in context
| Multiple | Now | 5-year median | 5-year percentile | Sector rank (cheapness) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 18.7× | 19.6× | 38th | Top 32% |
| P/E (forward) | 15.2× | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.1× | — | — | Top 47% |
| EV / Sales | 3.50× | — | — | Bottom 12% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.97% | — | — | Top 49% |
| Earnings yield | 5.34% | — | — | Top 32% |
P/E over the past five years
Range 13.2× – 24.0× since Jun 30, 2021. Each point: price on the filing date divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS known then.
What moved the stock over the past year
- Price return, 1 year
- -29.1%
- Earnings per share growth (TTM)
- +0.1%
- Change in P/E multiple
- -12.9%
Most of the move came from a change in the valuation multiple.
Technical state
Trend checklist
- ✓ Price above 20-day average
- ✓ Price above 50-day average
- ✗ Price above 200-day average
- ✗ 50-day average above 200-day
- ✓ MACD histogram positive
Trend quality
- Days above the 50-day average
- 4
- Days above the 200-day average
- 0
- 50-day average slope (20 days)
- +1.6%
- 200-day average slope (20 days)
- -0.4%
- Distance from 50-day average
- +3.5%
- Distance from 200-day average
- -2.3%
- RSI (14)
- 58.9
- Relative volume
- 1.01×
Risk and drawdowns
- Volatility, 60 days (annualized)
- 33.6%
- Volatility vs own 5-year history
- 71th percentile · Normal for this stock
- Beta vs S&P 500 (2 years, weekly)
- 0.84
- Correlation with S&P 500
- 0.37
- Current drawdown from 1-year high
- -29.8%
- Maximum drawdown, 3 years
- -38.0%
Largest declines in the past six years
| From peak | To low | Decline | Length | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | -39.1% | 159 days | 278 days (Jan 10, 2023) |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Jul 22, 2026 | -38.0% | 185 days | Not yet recovered |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Jul 28, 2025 | -16.7% | 38 days | 16 days (Aug 19, 2025) |
| May 1, 2023 | Jun 22, 2023 | -16.1% | 36 days | 92 days (Nov 1, 2023) |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Oct 10, 2024 | -15.4% | 50 days | 19 days (Nov 6, 2024) |
Declines of 10% or more from a closing high, measured on daily closes.
Financial statements
- Market cap
- $4.06B
- P/E (TTM)
- 18.7
- EPS, diluted (TTM)
- $8.27
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.14B
- 52-week range
- $134.27 – $223.04
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $896.6M | $911.3M | $960.9M | $1.03B | $1.11B |
| Gross profit | $515.3M | $487.5M | $503.7M | $544.4M | $588.4M |
| Operating income | $282.2M | $237.5M | $249.3M | $275.4M | $303.3M |
| Net income | $260.3M | $184.7M | $205.0M | $226.2M | $216.2M |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.92 | $5.73 | $6.80 | $7.73 | $7.71 |
| Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $238.3M | $292.6M | $289.3M | $247.5M | $261.1M | $308.1M | $308.8M | $264.0M |
| Net income | $41.5M | $81.9M | $71.6M | $41.5M | $16.3M | $86.7M | $75.3M | $45.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.42 | $2.84 | $2.52 | $1.48 | $0.58 | $3.14 | $2.80 | $1.75 |
| FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $313.1M | $220.8M | $243.7M | $290.0M | $273.5M |
| Capital expenditure | -$29.4M | -$35.6M | -$45.4M | -$37.2M | -$34.9M |
| Free cash flow | $283.7M | $185.2M | $198.2M | $252.7M | $238.6M |
| Dividends paid | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net share buybacks | -$803.8M | -$604.2M | -$137.1M | -$173.2M | -$264.8M |
Cash outflows are shown as negative numbers.
- Cash and short-term investments
- $274.5M
- Total assets
- $919.2M
- Total liabilities
- $249.7M
- Total debt
- $104.2M
- Net debt
- -$66.8M
- Shareholders’ equity
- $669.5M
As of Jun 30, 2026 (filed Jul 30, 2026).
Short interest
- Shares sold short
- 2,183,406
- Days to cover
- 6.85
- Change vs previous report
- +7.6%
FINRA short interest, settlement date Sep 15, 2026.