NIKE rises 1.1% as it reports weaker revenue and issues downbeat fiscal 2027 guidance

What happened

NIKE (NKE) rose 1.1% on October 8, 2026, after it reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 declines in revenue and net income and issued fiscal 2027 guidance calling for a high single-digit revenue decline and EPS of $1.15–$1.35. The company reported a sharp drop in Greater China sales, and the EPS guidance implies an expected roughly 20% drop from the prior year, according to Seeking Alpha and Zacks Investment Research.

How big was the move

The stock closed at $34.74 and rose 1.1% on the day. Trading volume was 0.9 times its 20-day average, and the session was an ordinary one for the stock, representing 0.6 times a typical daily move. Over the last five sessions the stock fell 1.2% while the S&P 500 rose 1.3%; on the day the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Consumer Cyclical sector median rose 0.6%, leaving NIKE 0.5 percentage points better than the sector median.

The technical picture

The stock is 2.4% below its 20-day moving average and 9.3% below its 50-day moving average. It sits 27.8% below its 200-day moving average, and the 50-day average is below the 200-day average, a sign of a weak longer-term trend. NIKE is 50.7% below its 52-week high and its Relative Strength Index (14 days) is 38, inside a neutral range. Over one month the stock fell 7.0% and over three months it fell 21.7%.

Fundamentals and valuation

For the four quarters through August 31, 2026, NIKE reported revenue of $45.89 billion, a decline of 1.2% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $2.09, which rose 7.2% from a year earlier. Gross margin improved to 43.1% from 41.9% a year earlier, and operating margin widened to 8.2% from 7.4%.

Free-cash-flow margin was 4.6% and return on invested capital was 10.3%. The balance sheet showed net debt of 0.9 times EBITDA, and share count over one year increased by 0.4%. Those figures point to a company maintaining productive margins and cash generation even as top-line growth slowed.

On valuation, the stock trades at 16.6 times trailing earnings, a level lower than 95% of its own readings over the past five years (five-year median: 29.9 times earnings). Price to forward earnings is 25.4 times expected earnings and free-cash-flow yield is 4.2%. PromtFinance scores rank value at 67 and revisions at 76, while growth is 17 and momentum is 8, reflecting slower top-line trends amid a cheaper valuation.

Earnings and analyst expectations

NIKE’s last report, on October 1, 2026, showed earnings per share of $0.48 against $0.43 expected, 10.8% above estimates. That marked the thirteenth consecutive quarter beating estimates. The average surprise over the last four reports is recorded as 100.0% above estimates and the typical two-day reaction after recent reports is rose 0.4%.

Seventy-three analysts cover the stock and the consensus rating is Buy. The consensus price target is $38.39, which is 10.5% above the closing price. Forty-seven percent of analysts rate the stock Buy.

What to watch

• December 17, 2026: next earnings report date
• Management guidance for fiscal 2027: revenue guidance of a high single-digit decline and EPS guidance of $1.15–$1.35
• Greater China sales trends after reported sharp declines
• Consensus price target of $38.39 and the distribution of analyst ratings
• Free-cash-flow margin at 4.6% and net debt at 0.9 times EBITDA